Pick Royals Over Yankees in Tonight's Series Opener

Ross Benjamin

Monday, August 25, 2014 12:20 PM GMT

The Yankees and their current 4-game winning streak travel to Kansas City tonight to take on the AL Central leading Royals. Our sports betting expert breaks down this contest, locates the best betting value, and concludes the article with a MLB free pick.

AL Series with Playoff Implications
The Royals will host the Yankees tonight at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City with the first pitch slated for 7:10 PM ET. This game will be televised nationally by ESPN. According to MLB betting odds the Royals are a -134 money line home favorite and the posted total is 7.5. The Yankees have gone 10-7 versus the Royals during the last 3-seasons including 6-4 in the games played at Kansas City.

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Pineda Needs to Stay Healthy
When the Yankees were able to sign Michael Pineda in free agency prior to the 2013 season, it certainly came with a sense of excitement. Unfortunately Pineda has spent much of his first 2-seasons in the Bronx on the disabled list. Pineda was sidelined this season in late April, and finally returned to the rotation for a start on August 13th at Baltimore. In his 2-starts since returning from the DL he’s gone 0-2 against the money, but has posted a very good 2.46 ERA and excellent 0.64 in those outings.

 

He’s a Shining Shields
The Royals starter James Shields has been in terrific form over his last 6-starts, going 5-1 against the money, and posted an excellent 1.93 ERA. The Royals right-hander has gone 17-10 overall against the money this season with a solid 3.28 ERA. Since the start of the 2013 season, he’s seen each of his 3-starts versus the Yankees go under the total. In those 3-outings the Royals hurler has posted a superb 1.29 ERA.

 

Royals in an Unfamiliar Role
The Royals lead the AL Central by 2.5 games over the 2nd place Detroit Tigers, and are a favorite against the Yankees, and all this is taking place during the final week of August. What’s the baseball world coming too? The truth of the matter is that this Kansas City team is for real. Despite yesterday’s 3-1 loss at Texas, the Royals have gone an outstanding 24-7 over their last 31-games. This is a team that now expects to win each and every time they take to the diamond, and especially when the books install them as a favorite. The Royals have gone a very profitable 46-27 (.630) as a money line favorite of -110 or more this season.

 

Yankees Keep Battling
Every time you think the Yankees are about to disappear from playoff contention, they battle their way right back into the race. The Bronx Bombers enter this series having won their last 4 in a row. They now trail the AL East division leading Orioles by 6.0 games, and are just 3.5-games behind the Seattle Mariners for the final wild card spot in the American League. This isn’t Joe Girardi’s most talented team he’s had with the Yankees, but in my estimation, it’s been his best managerial job that he’s done in his career with all things being considered.

 

Final Analysis
As I alluded to earlier, the Royals are a -135 money line home favorite. Kansas City hitters are averaging striking out just 5.9 times per game in 2014. The Yankees Michael Pineda has allowed 2 earned runs or less in each of his past 2-starts. This set of scenarios sets up a highly profitable MLB money line super system for this game tonight, and it’s illustrated below.

 

MLB Betting System
Any money line home favorite of -125 to -175 that averages striking out 6 or less times per game, and they facing a starting pitcher who’s allowed 2 earned runs or less in each of his last 2-starts, has gone 42-9 (82.4%) during the past 5-seasons.

Free MLB Pick: Royals -134 over the Yankees at 5Dimes