Pick 'Over' in Orioles vs. White Sox Series Opener

Ross Benjamin

Monday, August 18, 2014 3:56 PM GMT

Our resident sports betting expert examines tonight’s game between the Orioles and White Sox. Read what he has to say in this revealing piece that’s concluded by a MLB free pick on the total.

AL East Leader Visits The “Windy City”
The White Sox will host the Orioles tonight in Chicago with the opening pitch slated for 8:10 PM ET. According to MLB betting odds the White Sox are a -170 money line home favorite and the posted total is 7.0. The White Sox are 1.5 (+115) and the Orioles +1.5 (-135) on the run-line. The Orioles have gone 12-6 versus the White Sox over the last 3-seasons, and just 4 of the 18-games (22.2%) went over the total.

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This Bud’s For You
The Orioles starter Bud Norris has seen 7 of his last 9-starts stay under the total while posting a very good 2.96 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. Norris has been much better at home this season than on the road. In 11 road starts he’s posted a lofty 4.55 ERA. The Orioles right-hander has 2 career starts versus the White Sox and both of those came in 2013. He was 0-2 in those outings with a large 6.97 ERA and 1.74 WHIP.

 

Super Sale
Chris Sale is a premier starting pitcher on a below average ball club. He’s gone 13-6 against the money this season with a terrific 2.01 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a better than 6:1 strikeout to walk ratio. He’s been very profitable at home in 2014 going 9-3 (+4.60 units) versus the money line. One of the few flaws Sale has on his MLB resume is when facing the Orioles. He’s gone 0-2 lifetime against the money versus Baltimore with a 5.40 ERA and a mammoth 2.10 WHIP.

 

Orioles Are An ATM On The Road
If you wagered $1000 a game on the Orioles when they’re on the road this season, you’ve made a profit of $17,400 so far. Baltimore Orioles are a stellar 36-26 on the road in 2014, and has regularly cashed in as a money line underdog in that role. As a matter of fact they did so yesterday as a +120 money line underdog at Cleveland, coming away with a 4-1 win. It’s very rare, in addition to odd, to see a first place team at this point of the season continue to be undervalued on the road.

 

Another Disappointing Season
The White Sox had moderately high expectations entering the 2014 season, and they’ve not come close to reaching their goals. They’ve done enough offensively to be a winning team, but unfortunately besides Chris Sale, their pitching has made the vulnerable. The White Sox are allowing 4.7 runs per game in 2014, and their bullpen has been horrible in posting a staff ERA of 4.47.

 

Final Analysis
Based on both of these starting pitchers' career numbers versus tonight’s opponents, in addition to the low posted total, I’m going to have a small lean toward going over the total in this game.
Free MLB Pick: Orioles/White Sox to go over the total of 7.0