Pick Over 8.5 Runs for Tigers vs. Angels Series Finale

Darin Zank

Sunday, July 27, 2014 2:08 PM UTC

Sunday, Jul. 27, 2014 2:08 PM UTC

Two of the best offenses in baseball have been limited to a total of seven runs over the last two games of this series, making a mockery of our last two free MLB picks on the 'overs.' Can we come up with a winner for Sunday's series finale (3:35 pm ET)?

Sunday's Betting Odds
In the early wagering action most sportsbooks were chalking LA and Hector Santiago at around -115 over Detroit and Rick Porcello, with a total of 8.5 runs.


Saturday Re-Hash
The vaunted Tigers offense managed just four hits off some kid named Shoemaker and two Angels relievers in a 4-0 LA victory. The Halos won as -115 chalk on Saturday's MLB betting line, and the game, to our great disappointment, played 'under' its total of 8.5 runs.

Detroit has lost seven of its last 11 games.


Sunday's Starters
This is a re-match of a game played back on April 20, a 2-1 Detroit victory at Comerica Park.

Santiago (2-7, 4.02) is just 2/13 on quality starts this season, but he's pitched a little better than that stat might indicate. Last time out he held Baltimore scoreless through five innings, and over his last three appearances he's given up three ER through 13 2/3 innings.

For the season Santiago has allowed 64 hits in 72 innings, walked 28 and struck out 66. LA is 4-9 in Santiago's starts, with the totals going 6-7.

Since the beginning of last year (when he was with the White Sox) Santiago has started four times against Detroit, allowing six ER and 19 hits through 23 2/3 innings; all four of those games played 'under' the totals.

Porcello (12-5, 3.42) is 13/19 on quality starts, and six for his last seven. Last time out he gave up three runs in seven innings against Arizona, and just before that he held Kansas City to one run through seven frames.

On the season Porcello has allowed 118 hits in 126 innings, walked 28 and whiffed 72. Detroit is 13-6 in Porcello's starts, with the totals going 10-9.

Last year Porcello faced the Angels twice, and got bombed for 16 runs in five innings of work. But in his one start this year against LA he gave up just one run through seven innings of that 2-1 Tigers victory back in April.

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Free Pick for Sunday
After two straight low-scoring affairs we expect some runs to be scored today. So we'll go with the 'over' 8.5 runs for our free pick on Sunday's series finale.

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