Pick 'Over' 7.5 in Brewers vs. Phillies

Jeff Grant

Thursday, April 10, 2014 2:57 PM GMT

Thursday, Apr. 10, 2014 2:57 PM GMT

Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley is expected back in the lineup Thursday, which should lead to a high-scoring affair against the Milwaukee Brewers at Citizens Bank Park. Find out why we have decided to focus our MLB picks on the total tonight.

Let’s take a closer look at the pro baseball odds for this National League matchup in the City of Brotherly Love, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET.

Let our MLB Picks of the Day help you locate the best value

Living on the road
Milwaukee is off to its best start since going 6-2 to begin the 2008 campaign, with much of the success coming away from Miller Park, as the ball club has won its first five road games.

Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun is batting .389 with 17 home runs and 39 RBI in 45 career games against the Phillies—driving in nine of those runs in the opening two games of this series.

It’s important to point out that the franchise is aiming for its first-ever sweep in Philadelphia.

 

Missing Utley
Through the first week of the season, Phillies second baseman ranked first among NL players with a .833 slugging percentage, but he’s missed the first two games of this series due to flu-like symptoms.

Utley must be in the lineup for MLB handicappers to feel comfortable in backing the home favorites in this spot, especially since he’s 3 for 5 with three RBIs in his career versus Milwaukee’s scheduled starter.

 

Estrada
Brewers starting pitcher Marco Estrada (0-0, 1.59 ERA) didn’t earn a decision in a 6-2 road victory over the Boston Red Sox last week, as he surrendered two runs (one earned) and four hits over 5.2 innings of work. 

The right-hander is 8-11 with a 4.32 ERA in 55 career road appearances (28 starts), but compiled a 5-2 record and 2.09 ERA in that situation in 2013. 

In eight lifetime outings (two starts) versus the Phillies, Estrada has yet to record a decision and has a 7.63 ERA.

 

Lee
Phillies starting pitcher Cliff Lee (2-0, 6.00 ERA) has managed to tally a pair of wins despite allowing 21 combined hits in those efforts, as he prepares to make his first home start of the season.

In seven lifetime outings versus the Brewers, Lee has registered a even 1-1 record and 4.66 ERA. 

The left-hander will look to improve upon his 18-9 mark and 2.88 ERA in 40 career appearances in April.

[gameodds]3/261541/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers play the total with their  MLB picks, as the OVER is 5-0 in Lee’s five trips to the mound with umpire Paul Nauert behind the dish.

MLB handicappers will also find that these two teams have gone above the betting total in seven of the last eight meetings at this venue. 

MLB Pick:  Over 7.5

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