Pick Orioles Run Line as Home Dogs vs. Tigers & Go 'Over' MLB Odds Total

Darin Zank

Sunday, August 2, 2015 11:08 AM GMT

This handicapper picked up a victory with Baltimore Saturday night, and after checking today's betting board he is sticking with the Orioles for Sunday's series finale with Detroit.

Tigers-Orioles Sunday Odds
In the early betting the best price we could find on Baltimore and Ubaldo Jimenez was the -170 offered at at JustBet, while Detroit and lefty Daniel Norris were getting +165 at BetOnline. And most of today’s MLB betting market listed a total on today's game of 8.5 runs, although there were some nines out there, too.

 

The Situation
Baltimore has taken two of the first three games of this four-game series, after winning Saturday night 6-2. So the Orioles have won seven of their last eight games, while Detroit has lost 13 of its last 19.

At 53-50 Baltimore is now within five games of first-place New York in the AL East, and remains one game back of Minnesota in the battle for the second American League wild-card spot.

At 50-54 the Tigers trail the Twins by 4.5 games in that wild-card race.

The O's now lead this season series four games to two.

 

Sunday's Starters
Jimenez (8-6, 3.73) is eight-for-20 on quality starts this season. Tuesday he held Atlanta to two runs through seven innings, which was a much-needed rebound, after getting pegged for 14 runs over his previous two starts, against these Tigers and the Yankees. On the season Jimenez has allowed 113 hits, including 13 homers, through 113 innings, walked 38 and struck out 108.

Baltimore is 10-10 in games Jimenez has started, with the totals going 9-9.

Last year Jimenez started once against Detroit, tossing seven innings of shutout ball in a game the Orioles eventually lost 4-1. But in his only start against the Tigers this season, two weeks ago, he got clipped for seven runs in less than five innings of a 7-3 O's defeat.

Norris (1-1, 3.86) will be making his first start for the Tigers, after going one-for-five on quality starts for Toronto back in April. He then got sent down to to Triple-A Buffalo, where he went 3-10 with a 4.27 ERA. He was just traded to Detroit as part of the David Price deal.

Norris is a former second-round draft pick of 2011, and fairly highly regarded; through 348 innings of Minor League ball he struck out 384.

On the season Norris has allowed 23 hits through 23 innings, walked 12 and struck out 18. The Blue Jays went 2-3 in games Norris started, with the totals leaning toward the UNDERS by a 4-1 margin.

This will be Norris' first-ever start against Baltimore.

 

Sunday's Batting Splits
Detroit ranks second in the Majors this season against right-handed pitching with a .276 team batting average, and second with a .329 team on-base percentage.

Baltimore, meanwhile, ranks 10th against left-handed pitching with a .261 team average but only 23rd with a .307 team OBP.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
The OVERS are 28-23 in games played at Camden Yards this season, which are averaging 9.0 runs per.

 

Injury Update
Detroit is now 10-15, averaging 4.7 runs per game, since losing Miguel Cabrera to the disabled list. Also, JD Martinez (28 HR) had to leave Saturday's game after fouling a pitch off his leg, and is iffy for today.

 

Tigers-Orioles Sunday Free Picks
Ubaldo owns a significant home/road split this season, but his 2.13 ERA at Camden Yards means something to us. We like the O's today, and because we like to take chances we'll play the home team on the run line. Also, we could see this game getting to 6-3, so we're thinking OVER.

MLB Picks: Baltimore +119 on the run line at 5Dimes and OVER 8.5 runs (-120) at Bookmaker