Pick Orioles +105 to Upset Bronx Bombers at Home

Charles Stark

Tuesday, July 21, 2015 11:05 AM GMT

When the Yankees play at home it is a no-brainer that they're going to be favored well over 90% of the time. Today though I think there is good value on taking the Baltimore Orioles and I'm going to back them on the plus money line..

Odds
MLB odds makers have come out making the Baltimore Orioles of +108 underdog. The best line I have seen at that number is at Sports Betting sports book, but in my assessment I think this line will go down just a little bit before first pitch. I made the same assessment the other day on the Texas Rangers and the line with the opposite way so sometimes that is tough to call. But if you look at the numbers of these two teams getting the Orioles on the plus money line in this matchup seems like good value to me.

 

Pitching Matchup
Nathan Eovaldi will take the mound for the Yankees and most likely is the luckiest pitcher in baseball when we compare his stats to his record. He comes in with a 4.50 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, only 71 strikeouts in 98 innings, and batters hitting over .300 against him, but still he has a record of 9-2. It makes sense though because he has the fourth highest runs support in the American League for starters that qualify at 5.61 runs per game. He has pitched decent recently but against Baltimore this season he has a 4.22 ERA and 1.88 WHIP allowing five earned runs in 10 innings off of 14 hits. For the Orioles Wei-Yin Chen will get the start and comes in with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.  Baseball is a funny sport and even though his numbers are much better than Eovaldi he only has a record of 4-5. As well, unlike his counterpart today he ranks 42nd in runs support at 3.41 runs per game. He has pitched really well recently and against the Yankees this season he has a 2.08 ERA, a WHIP under 1.00, and has only allowed three earned runs in 13 innings.

 

Batters
Both the Yankees and the Orioles are two of the better hitting teams in the major leagues and rank in the top 10 to top five most offensive categories. The Yankees ranked second in the league in runs scored per game with Baltimore ranking fifth, and in OPS the Yankees are ranked fifth with the Orioles ranked seventh. In batting average though Baltimore leads the Yankees ranking eighth in the league hitting .257 compared to the Yankees that rank 16th hitting .253, not that big of the disparity. Both these teams can hit, but I am more inclined to see Chen hold down the Yankees as compared to Eovaldi holding down the Orioles.

I think this is a nice spot to grab and upset even though the Yankees are at home. If the Orioles are to make any type of push towards winning the AL East this series is crucial to them and I look for them to play a very focused game today with their ace on the mound, back the Orioles.

MLB Pick: Orioles +105 at BetOnline