Pick Orioles +103 to Upset Tigers as MLB Action Resumes

Charles Stark

Friday, July 17, 2015 10:59 AM GMT

Tonight we have a good matchup between two teams that need a solid second half to get into the pennant race. Here's our MLB pick for the Orioles vs. Tigers showdown.

Odds
It makes sense for Detroit to be favored in this game being at home and their offensive stats being just about even with Baltimore. Also, Sanchez has pitched pretty well recently and was close to a no-hitter two games ago against Toronto. Still, to me the value is going to be on the Orioles in this game and right now you get them at +105 at most sports books. That is the odds that such popular books like Pinnacle and Bookmaker have to offer.

 

Pitching Matchup
Anibal Sanchez gets the start for the Detroit Tigers and has not had the year that they were expecting with a 4.63 ERA and 1.18 WHIP along with a record of 8-7. Even with those numbers it still makes sense for the odds makers to go ahead and make him and the Tigers the favorite in this spot. He is not pitching as well as his career numbers indicate with a 3.63 ERA, and as mentioned earlier he has pitched better recently. Before the break in his last three games he was decent allowing 11 runs in 20 innings, but in the one game against the Blue Jays he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning until things got away from him a little bit. I really like Sanchez as a major league pitcher but coming out of the break I think he's still just a bit overvalued in this spot. For the Orioles resurgent Ubaldo Jimenez gets the call with a 2.81 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, but his road numbers are not that good with a 3.51 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Still, for the most part he has been a solid option for the Orioles this season and in his last two road games just before the break he allowed one earned run over 12 innings against the White Sox and the Twins.

 

At the Plate
Even with Cabrera out of the lineup for the Tigers they have still been good offensively. The Tigers are ranked third in the major leagues in runs scored per game but the Orioles are not far behind ranked seventh. In OPS as a team the Tigers are also ranked a bit above the Orioles ranking second in the major leagues compared to Baltimore at seventh again. There is a bigger gap in batting average with Detroit leading the league in hitting .281 compared to Baltimore who ranks 12th at .255. One statistic I really do like about Baltimore is that they are good in the clutch and rank first in the major leagues in not leaving runners on in scoring position, and the Tigers surprisingly rank 19th in this category.

There really is not a big disparity between these teams on the offensive end. From a pick to about +105 I think this is good value on a Baltimore team that in my opinion is simply better than Detroit. Although Sanchez has pitched a little bit better recently, Jimenez has not been a slouch. This should be a really fun game to watch, take Baltimore for the minor upset as your MLB pick.

MLB Pick: Orioles +103 at Pinnacle