Pick Mets at Home to Win SU Series Opener Against Padres

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, July 28, 2015 1:58 PM GMT

Our MLB consultant breaks down Tuesday’s game between the Padres and Mets. Join us in reading this revealing betting preview article which concludes with his money line pick.

Mets and Padres Open Series at Citi Field
The Mets and Padres open a three game series on Tuesday at Citi Field in Flushing, New York. The first pitch is slated for 7:10 PM ET. These teams met once this season in a three game set at Petco Park. All three of those games went over the total.

 

Starting Pitchers
The Padres veteran right-hander James Shields will make the start on Tuesday. Shields has posted a very good 2.94 ERA in his last three starts. However, his large 1.70 WHIP in those outings sends up a red flag. Shields issued 11 walks in 15 1/3 innings during those three starts. In eleven starts on the road, Shields has been less than impressive with a 5.01 ERA.

The Mets youngster Noah Synergaard has been outstanding in his six starts at Citi Field. The Mets have gone 5-1 in those six games and much of that success has been due to the outstanding pitching by Syndergaard. He’s posted a sparkling 1.74 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and compiled a 7:1 strikeout to walk ratio in those six home appearances.  Syndergaard enters today in great form over his previous five starts overall, posting a 1.59 ERA and 0.91 WHIP during those outings. It must be noted that the Mets hurler struggled in his only start versus San Diego this year. That outing took place on 6/2 at Petco Park, and he allowed 7 earned runs on ten hits in only 4.0 innings of work. On a positive note, he also struck out 10 Padres while walking none.

 

Padres Offensive in holding Pattern
San Diego has averaged a miniscule 2.4 runs per game and has a terrible .220 team batting average during their previous seven contests. Although they’re coming off winning three of four versus Miami in their last series, they scored just a combined 9 runs in those games, and were beneficiaries of an anemic hitting Marlins club.

 

Mets Home Field Edge is no Fluke
The Mets have gone an outstanding 34-16 (.680) at Citi Field this year, and that includes an even better 29-12 (.707) when they’re facing a right-handed starting pitcher. They’re coming off a 3-2 extra inning home win over the Dodgers on Sunday. The Mets are a superb 25-6 at home this year following a win in their previous game. The major sportsbooks have been spot on when labeling them as a money line favorite of -110 or more. The Mets are an incredible 37-13 in that exact scenario and an even more impressive 30-7 if they’re playing at home.

 

Money Line Betting System
The Padres starter James Shields has a 1.32 WHIP in 21 starts this year.

The Padres are averaging only 0.86 home runs per game on the season.

The Mets Noah Syndergaard is allowing just 0.46 home runs per start in 2015.

The MLB betting odds at BetOnline currently have San Diego as a +122 money line underdog.

Play against any National League road underdog of +125 to +175 (Padres), averaging 0.9 or less home runs per game, and has a starting pitcher (Shields) with a WHIP of 1.25 to 1.35, versus a starting pitcher (Syndergaard) that allows 0.50 or less home runs per start. This system resulted in the home favorite going 137-48 (74.1%) since 1997.

MLB Pick: Mets -132 on the money line BetOnline