Pick Marlins as Home Underdogs to Win vs. Nationals Tonight

Jeff Grant

Monday, July 28, 2014 1:59 PM UTC

Monday, Jul. 28, 2014 1:59 PM UTC

The Miami Marlins have put up some great offensive numbers against Monday night’s opposing starting pitcher, which will lead to a nice home underdog win versus the Washington Nationals.

An important series
Washington begins a new week with a 1.5-game lead over the Atlanta Braves in the National League East standings, but it has alternated wins and losses over its last five games, including a 4-2 victory over the Cincinnati Reds as -127 road favorites Sunday.

The Nationals would really like to get outfielder Bryce Harper going in this matchup at Marlins Park, as he’s mired in a 1-for-14 slump with six strikeouts, but he’s batting .421 in five games versus the Marlins in 2014.

MLB handicappers will find that the club is 9-8 as favorites of -125 to -150 when playing away from Nationals Park, with no clear edge in regards to the betting total (8-8-1 Over/Under).


Returning home
Miami is coming off its best seven-day road trip in team history, as it compiled a 6-1 record in taking on the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves, while the UNDER went 4-2-1 in that span.

The Marlins deserve a long look when looking over the MLB betting odds, as their bullpen has held opponents to a .141 opponents batting average over the last eight games, while closer Steve Cishek locked down his sixth game in eight days.

It’s important to point out that the franchise is 12-11 as home underdogs of +100 to +150, with the OVER going 14-6-3 in that situation.


Nationals starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann (6-5, 3.20 ERA) hasn’t been the same pitcher since sustaining a biceps strain during his last outing before the All-Star break, which is a bit concerning after registered a 1.43 ERA in 44 innings last month.

The right-hander is 3-3 with a 3.51 ERA in nine road efforts—issuing just seven walks and striking out 59 batters in 56.1 combined frames.

Zimmermann has put together a 5-0 record and 3.33 ERA in his last eight overall starts versus the Marlins, but he’s allowed them to hit .368 against him in three appearances this season—his highest opponents’ batting average versus any opponent (min. two starts)


Marlins starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi (5-6, 4.20 ERA) has watched the team fall in defeat in his last five trips to the mound, including a 6-1 road defeat to the Atlanta Braves last time out—surrendering five runs and six hits over seven innings of work.

The right-hander is 3-3 with a 4.85 ERA in 11 home games, with opposing hitters batting .290 against him (.245 on the road).

In four lifetime starts versus the Nationals, Eovaldi has produced a 2-2 record and 5.06 ERA.


I’m going to recommend that readers back the Marlins as one of their MLB betting picks, as they’ve won five of Eovaldi’s last seven starts versus division opponents.
MLB Pick:  Miami Marlins

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