Any team getting spotted a run in this series will present value as the pitching matchups are closer than records indicate. Our MLB handicapper analyzes Wednesday's matchup and gives his MLB Pick.
The Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Indians continued their offensive woes on Tuesday night with the M’s winning 3-2, which led to a winning Under (7) ticket for yours truly. That makes 14 out of 15 combined June games that the Mariners and Indians have scored 3 runs or less in a game. Both fan bases are frustrated at their offenses, with Robinson Cano and Nick Swisher taking the majority of the blame for each team in the blogosphere. In the second game of this series we have Trevor Bauer of the Indians facing Taijuan Walker of the Mariners. The Indians opened up as home favorites on the money line at -145 at 5Dimes, with the O/U total opening at 8 on the posted MLB odds. There are scattered thunderstorms in the area tomorrow night, so hopefully we can get the game in on time.
These pitchers last met at Safeco on May 29th, with both turning in excellent games in a pitching duel that had the Mariners win 2-1. Taijuan Walker had the best effort, pitching 8 shutout frames while giving up 2 hits and striking out eight. Only now (thankfully) former closer Fernando Rodney gave up a run for the Mariners in that game. Walker has been quietly turning things around since a terrible outing on May 2nd, with a 3.96 ERA, 33/12 K/BB ratio, and a 8.2 K/9 ratio in the six starts since. I’ve been a fan of Walker’s since my sabermetrics articles this spring and I firmly believe his statistics will trend towards those projections over the course of the season.
Trevor Bauer of the Indians has also been fantastic since a string of terrible starts in early May. In his last five starts Bauer has given up two runs or less and has failed to pitch into the 8th inning only once. I say a string of terrible starts, but it has just been a few, as Bauer’s season stats sit at 5-2, 2.94 ERA, and a 70/29 K/BB rate. Even with these statistics on his side, Bauer has been terrible against the Mariners in his career, with a 5.09 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, and .319 BAA in three starts and 17.2 IP. These numbers include that 7 IP, two earned run effort on May 29th. Those first two games against the M’s were truly terrible.
Baseball Betting Verdict
The only reason that I see the O/U total being set this high would be the weather. With winds projected to blow towards the outfield at 15MPH, the long ball could be an issue. This will be especially true for Taijuan Walker and his 13.9% FB/HR rate. When looking at the money line, the trends of these two pitchers foretell a toss-up instead of a game warranting a heavy home money line favorite. This leaves me with the rare play on the run line, and I love it with Seattle +1.5 at-144 at Pinnacle. With each team’s scoring trending at three runs or less for each game in June, the value is the trend continuing and the results favoring any team getting spotted a run. For this reason, I’m taking Seattle +1.5 on the run line at -144 at Pinnacle as my Wednesday MLB pick. I’m also adding a small late play on the Under of 8 if the weather and wind cooperates around game time.
MLB Picks: Seattle +1.5 on the run line at -144 at Pinnacle