For one of my MLB picks today I'm going to breakdown the Giants & D'backs betting odds in what looks to be a very good pitching matchup as well as one of the best Monday games in the major leagues.
MLB odds makers came out with Arizona as the favorite in this spot which makes sense considering how well starter Patrick Corbin has pitched this season. They have put the San Francisco Giants on the small plus money line as the underdog a bit over +100. The best odds right now on the Giants are at +106 at Pinnacle Sports.
San Francisco Giants
Mike Leake takes the mound for San Francisco with a 3.49 ERA, 1.11 whip, 108 strikeouts, and a 9-7 record. Although he's had a stellar season overall with the Giants he is 0-2. In his four appearances for San Francisco he has allowed nine earned runs in 25 innings, not bad. It is actually on the road where he has pitched his best with a 2.29 ERA and batters hitting under .200 against him combined with the Reds and the Giants. He is a really efficient pitcher and I look for him to have a solid outing today against an Arizona team coming back from a road trip.
The Giants rank 13th in runs scored per game at 4.24, 11th in OPS at .729, and fourth in batting average hitting .267 as a team. Except for batting average most of their important offensive statistics go up on the road. Also, although their previous two games were in Colorado, the Giants have started the show some life at the plate and produced 14 runs and 29 hits in those two games. Today they face a very good pitcher in Corbin but they do have some momentum on their side.
Patrick Corbin gets the start for Arizona with a 3.67 ERA, 1.24 whip, 86 strikeouts, and a 4-3 record. In his last five starts he has been pretty solid except for one rough outing in Cincinnati. Overall though in those starts he only has allowed 10 earned runs, and in his last 10 starts he has not allowed more than four runs in any contest in which he did just twice. At home he has been excellent with an ERA of 2.79 and batters hitting just .239 against them. He pitched against San Francisco back in July and did well allowing just two earned runs in five innings. He is not an easy guy to go against, especially at home, but his counterpart is no slouch so the value remains on the Giants.
Arizona ranks fifth in runs scored per game at 4.47, eighth in OPS at .733, and seventh in team batting average hitting .265. They are still arguably the best hitting team in the National League, but they have struggled just a little bit recently when coming back from a road trip. In their last two games they have come back after traveling they have only scored five runs total. I think the same trend may hold true for them today against a solid pitcher in Leake.
This is just a small plus money play but to me that is still value on a game that could go either way. With Arizona on a bit of a losing streak and the Giants having won two in a row, combined with a pretty even pitching matchup I will take a shot with San Francisco to pull the minor upset. I suggest you add them to your MLB picks as a solid underdog play today.
MLB Pick: Giants +106 at Pinnacle