Pick Diamondbacks +127 Over Astros in Sunday's Series Finale

Charles Stark

Saturday, August 1, 2015 11:38 PM UTC

Saturday, Aug. 1, 2015 11:38 PM UTC

After backing the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday to pull the upset, which they did, I see no reason not to back them in this Sunday's matchup with the Houston Astros.

MLB Odds
There is good plus money here on an Arizona Diamondbacks team that is playing really good baseball at this point in the season. With a good pitcher on the mound, and a solid offense, this is simply a great spot to back the D-Backs to take another one in Houston.  

Oddsmakers came out with the Diamondbacks at around +140 and this line immediately dropped. Right now you can find them at around +125 at most places, and the best MLB odds I have seen are 5Dimes at +127. This is good value on an Arizona team that seems to be starting to turn things up a notch in the second half. It's also a good spot to fade a really good Houston Astros team that seems to be all in, although I think they are still a year away.


Pitching Matchup
For the Diamondbacks, 23-year-old Robbie Ray will get the start with a 2.70 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, along with an unfortunate 3-5 record. In his last 10 starts he has been solid, allowing at most four earned runs in just two of those games, and in his last outing on the road allowing only two earned runs over six hits in seven innings to the Mariners. His road numbers are also very good with a 1.56 ERA and 0.87 WHIP on games away from Arizona. What I like about this matchup the most is that he has not allowed a lot of home runs in his last 10 games, knock on wood, allowing only three total in three different games. This is important because the Astros can hit the long ball, ranked 1st per game in the majors.

Collin McHugh takes the mound for the Astros with a 4.43 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, and a very good 12-5 record this year. He has been decent at home in his last three starts, allowing only eight total earned runs in 18 innings, but for the year he has a 5.22 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in Houston. The Diamondbacks are swinging the bat really well right now and should have a lot of quality at-bats against him, don't look for him to shut down Arizona.


At the Plate
Both these teams are two of the better offensive production teams in the major leagues. The Diamondbacks are ranked fifth in the league in runs scored per game with Houston right behind them ranked sixth. And in OPS, again they are two of the better teams in the league. Houston ranks seventh and the Diamondbacks rank ninth. Similar to my write-up on Friday the only major disparity between these two teams is batting average, where Arizona ranks in the upper part of the league hitting .263 and Houston surprisingly ranks in the bottom of the league batting .244.

Again we get to back the value with the Diamondbacks versus the Astros, and here the value sides with the Diamondbacks. It makes a lot of sense for us to see the Astros favored, but I think that the way the line already dropped when it first came out tells us a lot about what most handicappers think about Arizona. They are playing really good baseball overall right now so this is good plus money to grab them to win this game in Houston. Back the value with the Diamondbacks.

MLB Pick: Diamondbacks +127 at BetOnline

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