Pick Cueto & Giants RL In Rubber Match Against Rockies

Wednesday, July 6, 2016 12:03 PM GMT

The Giants and Rockies go to a rubber game to decide their series in San Francisco on Wednesday, and they're big chalk on the MLB odds behind Johnny Cueto.

Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
All signs pointed to the Colorado Rockies dropping their 7th-straight and San Francisco Giants ace Madison Bumgarner picking up his 10th win of the season Tuesday night. But being the funny game that baseball is, the situation turned into a 7-3 Colorado victory to send the teams to the rubber game of the series tonight.

First pitch from San Fran's Johnny Cueto is set for 10:15 PM (ET), Jorge de la Rosa the mound counterpart for the Rockies. The books have the Giants pronounced favorites in the -210 to -220 range, Pinnacle hawking a 7 run total priced evenly 'over/under.'

Nolan Arenado's 3-run homer was the key blow Tuesday for the Rockies who were +190 underdogs on the MLB odds against Bumgarner. San Francisco was smaller -125 chalk for Monday's 3-1 victory, Jake Peavy and five relievers combining to hold Colorado to six hits. The Giants have had the upper hand against the Rocks in San Francisco since the rivalry began in '93, and especially enjoyed their visits since the new park opened in 2000, winning 93 of the 150 games played on this diamond. Totals are 3-3 O/U by the bay this season.

 

Cueto Top Moneyline Bread Winner
Colorado is approaching decision time with regards to this season and beyond, trailing the Giants by 13½ games in the NL West and seven games behind in the wild-card chase. A good run the next couple of weeks would get them back in the playoff hunt, but could they keep it up after that to justify not trading an expensive piece such as Carlos Gonzalez to get better in the future?

Since rejoining the rotation, de la Rosa has pitched well in leading Colorado to three victories in four tries. The only loss was last Friday in LA where his offense deserted him in a 5-0 setback, the southpaw allowing two runs in seven innings. He picked up a win against the Giants in a mid-April start at Denver, then tossed two scoreless relief innings against them at Coors about six weeks later. The 35-year old hasn't had much success on this mound recently, losing three of his last five starts here while compiling a 7.52 ERA.

The Giants, of course, are trying to chase down the Cubs for the best record in the Senior Circuit, a half-game behind Chicago entering play Wednesday. Their top concern at the moment, however, is to keep distance between themselves and a surging Dodgers crew.

Cueto has hit a bump his last two outings, allowing 10 runs in 13 innings, but the end results were still San Francisco wins in each game. Baseball bettors are in love with the Dominican who has returned an MLB-best 12.3 units of profit in his 17 starts, the Giants winning 15 of them. Cueto has held the Rockies to just one earned run this season in two assignments, striking out 18 in those 14 innings, and is 3-0 in his last five starts vs. Colorado while pitching to a 1.18 ERA.

 

Umpire Notes, Mother Nature & A Free Pick
Rob Drake is expected behind the dish for the series finale and has been making friends with 'under' bettors the past two seasons. Drake owns a 5-9 O/U mark vs. the baseball odds in 2016 after going 11-17-2 O/U/P a year ago. Results have been pretty evenly split between home and visitors the past two seasons, but home chalk priced -160 or higher is running 7-2 in that span. It is Drake's first plate assignment in San Fran this season, the Giants winning each of his last five while totals were 2-3 O/U.

Mostly clear skies are forecast for the game, humid temps in the mid-to-upper 50s also in the mix with a stiff 12-15 mph westerly breeze (out to center). I'm going to cut that San Fran chalk in half my making my free MLB pick on the run line.

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Free MLB Pick: Giants -1½ +100 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle?
Season: 36-28 (+9.35)