Pick Braves to Upset MLB Odds in Rubber Match vs. Phillies

Charles Stark

Sunday, April 26, 2015 1:05 PM GMT

For today’s rubber match I expect the Atlanta Braves to beat the Philadelphia Phillies.  The pitching matchup is nothing to shout about as Trevor Cahill takes on Jerome Williams.

Braves vs. Phillies Rubber Game Odds and Pitchers
I was a bit surprised to see the Braves come out as the underdog in this matchup.  Right now MLB odds makers have them listed at about +100 to +105, it does make some sense though with Trevor Cahill coming in with a 9.95 ERA.  On closer examination this is good spot to go against arguably the worst team in baseball in the Phillies, I am not letting that big ERA get in the way of what I think is some solid value on the Braves.  Although he has started out poorly this year Cahill should be able to settle down against one of the worst offenses in the major leagues (more about that in a second).  In the last three years Cahill also has better numbers than Williams.   His ERA in that time frame is 4.29 compared to Williams at 4.63, and opponents are hitting .263 against him compared to Williams at .271.  Granted both guys are not lights out, and we should see some offense today, still Cahill does have a decent road ERA the last three years at 3.68 and batters hitting .250 off of him.

 

No Hits, No Runs, Some Errors
The Atlanta Braves have had their own struggles this year and is ranked just about below the middle of the league average in most offensive categories.  Philadelphia though, to put it lightly, is the pits.  They are ranked in the bottom three or lower in runs, hits, on base %, slugging %, and total bases.  In their last 10 games they have only gotten over 3 runs one time and in their last four they have scored a combined four runs.  I understand Cahill comes in with the big ERA but if he can just get his sinker going a bit he should limit them and Atlanta should do enough against Williams to get the win.  The best value MLB pick is on the Braves so I will back them for my “minor” upset of the day.

Free MLB Pick: Braves +102 at BetOnline