Pick Bailey & the Reds vs. Giants in Cincinnati

Jeff Grant

Tuesday, June 3, 2014 1:39 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 3, 2014 1:39 PM UTC

Tim Lincecum has never defeated the Cincinnati Reds in his career, which will lead to a series-opening defeat for the San Francisco Giants Tuesday night. Join our investigation into the betting lines for this NL affair.

Leading the way
San Francisco owns a seven-game lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West standings, while it has captured eight of its last 10 contests. The Giants rank third in the Senior Circuit in scoring 250 runs this season—a surprising number due to catcher Buster Posey having just one extra-base hit in his last 19 games. MLB handicappers will find that the Giants are 6-3 as road underdogs of +100 to +125 this season, with the 'under' going 5-3-1 in that situation.

Returning home
Cincinnati won four of seven games on its recently completed road trip, which includes a 4-3 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks as +128 underdogs Sunday, while going 'under' the betting total for the fourth time in five affairs. The Reds have gotten little to no production from outfielder Jay Bruce since his return from the disabled list on May 23, as he’s gone 4-for-30 without a home run in that span. Over the last two-plus seasons, the franchise is 30-20 at home with a money line of -100 to -125.

Giants starting pitcher Tim Lincecum (4-3, 4.18 ERA) has led the team to three wins in his last four outings, but he didn’t earn a decision in a 5-0 home victory over the Chicago Cubs in his last effort. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 4.91 ERA in four road appearances, with opposing hitters batting .319 against him. In five career starts versus the Reds, Lincecum has compiled a 0-3 record and 8.65 ERA—the only NL team he has yet to defeat since arriving in the big leagues.

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Reds starting pitcher Homer Bailey (5-3, 5.04 ERA) has won back-to-back games, including a 3-2 road victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers last Wednesday—giving up two runs and five hits over seven frames. The right-hander is 3-1 with a 4.70 ERA in five home outings, as he’s surrendered six home runs in 30.2 combined frames. In six lifetime appearances versus the Giants, Bailey has put together a 2-0 record and 4.26 ERA.

I’m going to recommend that readers back the Reds as one of their MLB picks, as they’ve won Bailey’s last four starts as a favorite.

Free MLB Pick:  Cincinnati Reds -115


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