Phillies vs. Reds MLB Picks: Hamels with Strong Edge Over Cinci

Darin Zank

Monday, June 8, 2015 12:31 PM GMT

Keep in mind before betting, that in 14 career starts Cole Hamels has never lost to Cincinnati. Monday night he and his Phillies are underdogs on the betting line vs. the Reds at the Ball Park. 

Phillies-Reds Monday Betting Odds
As of early Monday morning the best price we could find on Cincy and Mike Leake was the -107 offered at BetOnline, while Philly and Cole Hamels were “getting” +100 at WagerWeb. And the total on tonight's game sat at seven.

 

The Situation
Philly just dropped two of three games at home over the weekend to San Francisco, avoiding the sweep with a 6-4 victory Sunday. Just before that the Phillies had taken two of three games from these Reds. But just prior to that Philly had lost seven games in a row. At 22-36 the Phillies own the second-worst record in the Majors.

Cincinnati just lost two of three games at home over the weekend to San Diego, avoiding the sweep with a 4-0 victory Sunday. Just before that the Reds dropped two of three to these Phillies. So Cincy has lost two series in a row and five of its last six games. At 24-31 the Reds are 6.5 games off the pace in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

This is the second encounter between these teams this season. Last week, as just mentioned, the Phillies took two of three games from the Reds in Philly, with all three of those games playing OVER the MLB odds total.

 

Monday's Starting Pitchers
Today's pitching match-up is a repeat of a game played last Wednesday, a 5-4 Philly extra-innings victory. Cincy led that game 4-0 into the bottom of the ninth, but Philly rallied to tie the game, then won it with a run in the eleventh.

Leake (2-4, 4.40) is six-for-11 on quality starts this season, but only one for his last four. Last time out he held these Phillies scoreless into the ninth, before giving up two runs, but that effort came as a welcome reversal, after he'd been blown up for 20 runs over his previous three starts, covering 14 innings. On the season Leake has allowed fewer hits, 66, than innings pitched, 71 2/3, but 12 of those hits have left the yard. Cincy is just 3-8 in Leake's starts, with the totals leaning OVER by a 7-4 margin.

Hamels (5-4, 2.88) is nine-for-12 on quality starts this year, working on a run of six in a row. Last time out he held these Reds to two runs through seven innings, and over his last six starts, covering 44 1/3 innings, he's given up just nine runs. On the season Hamels has allowed only 62 hits through 81 1/3 innings, and owns an 84/28 K/BB ratio.

The Phillies, a team that's 14 games under .500 overall, is 7-5 in Hamels' starts, with the totals leaning UNDER 6-4.

Since the beginning of last season Hamels has started three times against Cincy, allowing just three runs through 21 2/3 innings; Philly won all three of those games. In fact, amazingly, the Phillies have won all 14 of Hamels' career starts against the Reds.

 

Monday's Batting Splits
Cincinnati ranks 13th in the Majors this season against left-handed pitching with a .323 team OBP.

Philly ranks dead last this year against righties with a .274 OBP.

 

Phillies-Reds Betting Trends
Philly is 7-20 on the road this season, worst in the Majors.

The Phillies have also played six OVERS in a row.

Cincinnati has played seven OVERS in its last eight games.

The OVERS are 15-9 in games played at Great American Ball Park this season,

Seven of the last eight meetings in this series have played OVER.

 

Phillies-Reds Monday Free Picks
Hamels owns the edge in the pitching match-up, so despite Philly's problems against RHP we believe the value MLB pick on today's line resides with the visitors. Also, both teams are trending hard on the OVER at the moment, and with a little help from the bullpens tonight's game might play OVER, too.

MLB Picks: Philly +100 and OVER seven runs at Heritage