Phillies vs. Nationals MLB Picks: Bet Run-Line -1.5 (+105) in Game 4

Darin Zank

Sunday, April 19, 2015 11:28 AM GMT

Sunday, Apr. 19, 2015 11:28 AM GMT

Philly hit the board with a 5-3 victory Saturday, cashing in MLB picks at a nice underdog price. The Phillies shoot for a split of this four-game series Sunday afternoon.

Phillies-Nats Game 3 Recap
Philly snapped a six-game losing streak with a 5-3 victory Saturday, scoring the go-ahead run in the seventh inning without a base hit.

Phillies starter Aaron Harang held Washington to three runs through six innings, with two walks and six strikeouts. However, by our tough standards we can't give Harang a “quality start,” because three runs in six innings is a 4.50 ERA, and a 4.50 ERA is lousy. He did get the W, though.

The Philly bullpen then threw three scoreless innings to secure the victory.

The Phillies won Saturday as +155 underdogs on the betting line, and the game, like the first two in this series, played OVER its total.

Nats starter Jordan Zimmerman gave up four runs – two earned – through 6 1/3 innings, but walked four guys. He's now allowed 23 base-runners (hits + walks) through 14 2/3 innings this season.

Washington SS Ian Desmond committed another error Saturday, his eighth already this season, and he botched a potential inning-ending double play, allowing a run to score. How do you factor-in a stone-handed shortstop when handicapping a baseball game? The Nats may want to do something about that situation.

Also, Washington OF Jayson Werth sat out Saturday's game, but he should be back in the lineup today.

In some possible good news for Washington OF Denard Span could see his first action of the season today, as he's eligible to come off the DL.

 

Phillies-Nats Game 4 Betting Odds
As of early Sunday morning the best price we could find on MLB picks backing Washington and Stephen Strasburg was the -223 offered at BetOnline, while Philly and David Buchanan could be found getting +208 at WagerWeb.

 

Sunday's Starters
Strasburg will be making his third start of this season; ten days ago he allowed six runs – three earned – in 5 1/3 innings of a 6-3 loss to the Mets, and Tuesday he got clipped for five runs and 10 hits through 5 1/3 innings of an 8-7 loss at Boston. So Washington is 0-2 in his starts this year, and both starts played OVER the totals.

Last year Strasburg started five times against Philly, holding them to five earned runs and 27 hits through 31 2/3 innings. The Nats went 4-1 in those starts, with the totals going 4-1, in part because the totals were so low.

Buchanan will be making his third start of this season, and is also searching for better results. Ten days ago he got nicked for six runs through three innings of a 6-2 loss to Boston, and five days ago he gave up five runs in less than six innings of a 6-5 loss to the Mets. So the Phillies are 0-2 in his starts, and both starts have played OVER the MLB odds totals.

Buchanan started once against Washington last year, giving up seven runs on 10 hits through six innings of a 7-0 loss.

 

Phillies-Nats Game 4 Free Pick
One would think Strasburg has a good shot at a quality outing today, going against a very pedestrian Philadelphia lineup. But that price is out of whack. So in search of some kind of value we'll take a chance and give the run and a half with the Nationals on the run line.

Free MLB Pick: Washington +105 on the -1.5 run line at 5Dimes

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