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Phillies vs. Mets MLB Picks: Seven-Inning Stretch

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Phillies vs. Mets MLB Picks: Seven-Inning Stretch
Aaron Nola #27 of the Philadelphia Phillies checks the runner on first base. Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images/AFP

Tuesday’s game between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will be the back end of a double-header. The MLB odds are going crazy.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets

Tuesday, 13th April, 2021 – 7:10 P.M. ET at Citi Field

Welcome to pandemic baseball. The New York Mets are scheduled to host the Philadelphia Phillies this Tuesday on ESPN, but the plans have already changed – and so have the MLB odds for today. What was once a stand-alone game will now be the second half of a double-header, after Monday’s matchup was postponed by rain. Under the current COVID-19 rules, that means it will be a seven-inning game instead of the usual nine, so if you already had either side of that 7.5-run opening total, that bet just got kiboshed.

That’s not the only change for this matchup. Instead of Taijuan Walker starting for the Mets, it will be Marcus Stroman, who made all of nine pitches on Sunday when the Mets, bless their hearts, decided they’d try to play the Miami Marlins in the rain. The umpires put a stop to that nonsense after just seven minutes. Stroman was originally going to take his next regular turn in the rotation this Friday, but he told manager Luis Rojas he was ready for Tuesday. And with that news, the Mets have gone from +115 underdogs to completely off the board at press time. It’s a funny old world.

Nola Contendere

As with the total, early moneyline bettors are being forced to reset their MLB picks – it’s standard practice now to lock in the starters at the open, and wipe the bets off the board if there are any changes. But if your plan was to fade the Mets, that might make even more sense now that Stroman (5.82 FIP) is taking the mound out of turn.

The Phillies aren’t changing their plans for Tuesday’s nightcap. Aaron Nola (3.15 FIP) is still penciled in to start, and it looks like the weather will improve enough to get this game in; the forecast calls for the rain to ease off in the early morning, leaving partly cloudy skies over Citi Field before the skies open up again late Wednesday night. Just another day at the office for Nola, who racked up 3.46 units in profit last year despite a team record of 5-7.

Nice Fade

Granted, that included a 1-2 record against New York, who lit Nola up twice after he blanked them over seven innings in their first meeting. But that’s a small sample size, and that’s pandemic baseball; over his career, Nola has held current Mets batters to a manageable .651 OPS. And he’s performed quite well out of the box this year, leading Philly to back-to-back wins in his first two starts for 1.41 units in sweet, sweet profit.

Having said that, Stroman did limit the Phillies to one earned run on three hits back on April 6, as New York won 8-4 to cash in as –126 home faves. The fine folks at FiveThirtyEight project New York to win Tuesday’s revised matchup 53 percent of the time, which works out to –113 (vig-free) using the gorgeous SBR Odds Converter. You’ll probably have some actual MLB lines by the time you read this, but as long as they’re not too far out of whack, we think there will be some value fading Stroman in what should be an uncomfortable situation for him.

MLB Pick: Phillies ML at -120 with GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)

Phillies ML(-120)
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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.