Phillies vs. Cardinals MLB Picks, Predictions: Will Pujols Lead St. Louis to Another Victory?
The Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals meet in Game 1 of the wild-card round on Friday afternoon. Read on for our Phillies-Cardinals picks.
Philadelphia and St. Louis meet in the new version of Major League Baseball’s Wild Card Round, a best-of-three series in which the higher-seeded Cardinals will host every game. The Phillies edged the Cardinals 4-3 in the season series, but will they have a similar advantage in this postseason matchup?
Here are my picks and predictions for Friday’s MLB Wild Card Round Game 1 between the Phillies and Cardinals (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Phillies vs. Cardinals Game Info
Date: Friday,
Oct. 7, 2:07 p.m. ET
Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis,
MO
Weather: 62 degrees, 1% chance of
precipitation, 12-mph N wind
Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds
Phillies vs. Cardinals Odds Analysis
Most commonly, the Phillies and Cardinals can be found with identical -110 Moneyline odds, making this game a virtual pick’em. However, those sportsbooks that do not have equal odds have pegged Philadelphia as the slight favorite, going as high as -116.
The Cardinals are the popular side, attracting 73% of the bets and 84% of the handle.
FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering a total of 6.5 runs, as all other sportsbooks are at 7.0.
Phillies vs. Cardinals Projected Pitchers
Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) vs. Jose Quintana (6-7, 2.93 ERA, 1.21 WHIP)
Zack Wheeler finished the regular season with a .632 winning percentage, which is tied for the highest of his career (excluding the 2020 shortened season). Wheeler spent a month on the injured list with forearm tendinitis. He made three starts following a Sept. 21 return.
Jose Quintana was acquired from the Pittsburgh Pirates for situations like this, as Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol trusts the veteran southpaw to take the mound in Game 1.
Since joining the Cardinals, Quintana has posted a 2.01 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and a 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 starts. Though he has averaged just over five innings over his last seven starts (38 total innings), Quintana has dropped just one decision while pitching to a minuscule 1.18 ERA.
Phillies vs. Cardinals Picks
Phillies vs. Cardinals ML Pick
Cardinals (-102) ★★
Philadelphia was 13 games under .500 (34-47) against winning teams this year, padding its 87 wins with 16 victories in 19 chances against the bottom-feeding Washington Nationals.
Meanwhile, St. Louis was outstanding at home with a .654 winning percentage (53-28) this season, including a .702 winning percentage in its previous 57 home games.
Veterans Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado led an offense that averaged 4.7 runs per game. Though the Cardinals ranked 29th in BABIP (.259) over the last 30 days, they mitigated that with the National League’s best strikeout rate (19.1%).
The Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10 games following an off day and should take control of this series in Game 1.
Phillies vs. Cardinals O/U Pick
Over 6.5 (-124) ★★★★
Wheeler was not the usual innings eater down the stretch that he was earlier in the season. He pitched at least six innings in 15 of 19 starts from May to August but threw just 15 total innings over his last three starts from Sept. 21 to Oct. 2.
Given St. Louis’s ability to work counts and not strike out at an elite rate, we do not expect Wheeler to go as deep in this game, putting strain on a Phillies bullpen that ranked 23rd with a 4.24. ERA. In addition, Quintana’s ERA in day games is more than a full run higher than when he started at night (3.74 compared to 2.53).
The Over has cashed in four of Philadelphia’s last five games against teams with a winning record and is 5-1 in St. Louis’ last six such home games.
Phillies vs. Cardinals Prop Pick
Pujols Over 0.5 RBI (+280) ★★★
Is Albert Pujols regretting announcing his retirement when he did? The Cardinals slugger finished the regular season on a tear with 10 RBIs in his final five games and 25 in his last 21.
For his part, Wheeler has allowed only six RBIs to current Cardinals hitters in 105 combined at-bats. But with the way the future Hall of Famer is swinging the bat, we feel compelled to throw a flier at these +280 odds.
Where to Bet on Phillies-Cardinals Picks
Phillies-Cardinals picks from 10/6/2022 at 3:33 p.m. ET.