Phillies-Braves Run Total Picks: Hamels/Miller vs. Weak Offenses

Charles Stark

Sunday, July 5, 2015 1:09 PM UTC

Sunday, Jul. 5, 2015 1:09 PM UTC

We place our MLB picks under the 6.5 run total odds, expecting a pitcher's duel in Philadelphia. The line is so low in this matchup because you have two very good pitchers on the mound.

MLB odds makers have come out with Phillies-Braves run total line at 6.5 that is what you get across the board at pretty much every sports book. The best odds I have seen right now is at Pinnacle Sports where you get the under at +100. I'm going to agree with the odds makers on this one and the offenses could struggle today.


The reason for this low line comes down to the pitching matchup and for the Philadelphia Phillies veteran Cole Hamels takes the mound. He comes in with a 3.22 ERA and 1.15 WHIP and has been one of the best pictures in the National League for the past decade. In his last five games he has had a couple rough outing but in his most recent appearance he allowed only two earned runs off a five hits in seven innings. He can be extremely tough at times and I expect him to pitch well against the Braves today. For the Braves Shelby Miller takes the mound with a 2.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He is coming off arguably his worst outing of the year allowing four earned runs in just five innings, but that was in a tough spot facing a good hitting team in Washington for the second time in a row. For the most part he has been stellar this season and in his last five appearances he has only allowed ten earned runs in his last 30 innings pitched. He should come in with a lot of confidence today against a week hitting team in Philadelphia.


Both these offenses rank in the middle to the bottom part of the league in most every major offensive category. The Braves rank 22nd in runs scored per game and the Phillies rank dead last in the major leagues. Their batting averages are a bit better with Atlanta ranked 14th and affiliate rank 22nd, still though not a lot to shout about. As we continue getting into their offenses is pretty plain to see that Hamels and Miller should have a lot of success today.  In on base plus slugging percentage the Braves rank 25th in the league and the Phillies 28th. There are just a few bright spots with these two teams on the offensive end, but today I think they're going to struggle to get runs across the plate.

Both Hamels and Miller have been having very productive seasons on the mound so far. Against both these offenses I anticipate some continued success and a low-scoring game, placing my MLB picks 'under' with confidence.

MLB Picks: Under 6.5 (+100 at Pinnacle)

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