Phillies vs. Astros MLB Picks, Predictions: Will Valdez Mow Down the Phillies?
Both Philadelphia and Houston are heading to the postseason. Here are our picks for the Phillies-Astros matchup on the final day of the regular season.
With the series tied 1-1, the Phillies will send Bailey Falter to the mound to take on Framber Valdez and the Astros in Game 162 before these two teams begin to prepare for the postseason. Who will end the regular season with one last dub?
Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Wednesday’s Phillies-Astros game (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 scale).
Phillies vs. Astros Game Info
Date/Time: Wednesday, Oct. 5, 4:10 p.m. ET
Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Weather: 86 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 6-mph wind
Phillies vs. Astros Odds
Phillies vs. Astros Analysis
The Astros are the moneyline favorites at all sportsbooks, ranging from –180 at DraftKings to -188 at FanDuel. The Astros are drawing 72% of the bash and 84% of the tickets.
The total is set at 7.5 at all major books.
Phillies vs. Astros Projected Pitchers
Bailey Falter (6-4, 3.90 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) vs. Framber Valdez (16-6, 2.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP)
After Zack Wheeler’s return from the IL, there was much discussion about what Bailey Falter’s role would be for the Phillies down the stretch. But in the final span of the regular season, it was determined he’d stay in the starting rotation. Falter made 15 starts for the Phillies in 2022, and he's been improving steadily. He's logged a 3.32 ERA over his last seven games while allowing no runs, three hits, and two walks, with six strikeouts versus the Washington Nationals during his last start.
Meanwhile, Framber Valdez will make his 31st start of the season for the Astros. He’s been inconsistent lately, with a 3.42 ERA in his last seven games, a 3.11 over his last 15, and a 2.89 across his last 30.
Valdez has been better away than at home in 2022. He’s 6-4 with a 3.76 ERA over 13 starts at Minute Maid Park. Valdez is coming off a loss to the Tampa Bay Rays when he pitched 5.1 innings, allowing nine hits, six runs, and three walks with just two strikeouts.
Phillies vs. Astros Picks
Phillies vs. Astros ML Pick
Astros (-180) ★★★
The Phillies were almost no-hit last night against the Astros up until the ninth inning thanks to Garrett Stubbs. With their wild-card spot secured and a playoff series to focus on, even after a 10-0 loss Philadelphia isn’t going to be gripping their bats quite as hard and shooting for the stars. Their main focus now is to be well-rested and healthy to start the series versus the St. Louis Cardinals on Friday.
Though Falter has been improving recently, Valdez is the stronger of the two starters, with a better bullpen to back him up. Additionally, this Astros' lineup has fared very well against left-handed pitchers.
While we might not see all the usual stars in either of these lineups, both the Astros’ offense and pitching staff give Houston the advantage.
Check out our MLB Best Bets for Wednesday's slate.
Phillies vs. Astros O/U Pick
Under 7.5 runs (-115) ★★
Take the Under due to the weakened lineups with both teams likely to rest the regulars. Plenty of players with little experience will face MLB starting pitchers.
Secondly, the Phillies exploded for a 10-0 win on Tuesday, and usually a lineup is quieter after an offensive explosion like that.
Phillies vs. Astros Prop Pick
Framber Valdez Over 5.5 strikeouts (+134) ★★
Even in a game that may not matter much for either team, Valdez will likely still strike out at least six Philadelphia batters. He recorded six-plus strikeouts in eight straight starts prior to his recent rough outing against the Rays.
Add in the fact the Phillies will surely rest their top hitters, and I'd take the plus money offered for this prop.
Where to Bet on Phillies-Astros Picks
Phillies-Astros picks from 10/5/2022 at 1:55 p.m. ET.
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