Phelps to Edge Out Harvey in Pitchers Duel: Pick Marlins & Under

Darin Zank

Wednesday, August 5, 2015 2:48 PM GMT

The Mets, thanks to some recent good play, and help from Washington, now lead the NL East. And they'll throw their ace as they shoot for a sweep of the Marlins. How could we possible bet against them?

Mets-Marlins Wednesday Odds
As of mid-Wednesday morning the best price we could find on New York with Matt Harvey was the -144 offered at GTBets, while Miami and David Phelps were getting +140 at Bovada. And every book on our MLB odds board listed a total of 6.5 runs, with most of the grease leaning toward the OVER.

 

The Situation
New York has taken the first two games of this three-game series, by scores of 12-1 Monday night and 5-1 Tuesday. So the Mets have won five games in a row overall, and at 57-50 now lead the NL East by a game over second-place Washington.

Miami, on the other hand, has lost nine of its last 11 games, and at 43-64 has already been playing out the string on this season for a while now.

These teams may be separated by 14 games in the standings, but the Marlins are nearly a .500 team at home this season, at 26-29, while New York is terrible on the road, at 19-32. However, the Mets lead this season series eight games to four, with the totals going 7-5.

 

Wednesday's Pitching Match-Up
Phelps (4-7, 3.93), by our strict standards, is 10-for-17 on quality starts this season, but only one for his last three. Last time out he gave up three runs in five innings against weak-hitting San Diego, and over his last three starts he's allowed eight runs through 16 2/3 innings. For the season the former Yankee has given up 107 hits through 105 innings, walked 29 and struck out 70.

The Marlins are just 5-12 in Phelps' starts, with the totals leaning UNDER by a 10-7 margin.

Phelps has started three times against New York this season, allowing five earned runs and 12 hits through 16 2/3 innings; thanks to some poor run support Miami lost two of those games, while all three games played UNDER.

Harvey (9-7, 2.91) is 12-for-20 on quality starts, working on a string of four in a row. Last time out he held Washington to one run through 7 2/3 innings, with zero walks and nine strikeouts, and over his last four starts he's allowed seven ER through 28 2/3 innings. On the season Harvey has given up 110 hits through 133 innings, with 31 walks and 125 whiffs.

The Mets are 12-8 in Harvey's starts, with the totals splitting 10-10.

Harvey has started twice this season against the Marlins, allowing eight runs and 14 hits through 14 innings; New York split those two games, while both games played OVER.

 

Wednesday's Batting Splits
New York ranks 27th in the Bigs this season against right-handed pitching with a .240 team batting average, and 24th with a .304 team on-base percentage.

Miami, meanwhile, ranks 23rd against righties with a .243 batting average and dead last with a pathetic .296 team OBP.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Marlins Park this season are 28-25 on the UNDERS, averaging 7.4 runs per.

Must Read: Bet Yankees-Red Sox to Go 'Over' as Severino Makes His Pro Debut

Injury Update
Miami is playing without slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who's on the DL with that broken wrist. Since he went down the Marlins are 13-19 overall, 14-17 on the totals, averaging just 3.1 RPG.

 

Mets-Marlins Wednesday Free Picks
When comparing the recent track records of tonight's starting pitchers against tonight's opponents, we have to give Phelps the edge over Harvey. And with most other factors washing out, we believe the value on tonight's betting line resides with Miami. Also, we ranks the Mets bullpen among the best in baseball, and the Marlins' isn't too bad, itself. So we're thinking UNDER for your Wednesday MLB pick.

MLB Picks: Miami and UNDER 6.5 runs (+103) at Pinnacle