Perfecting MLB Picks by Previewing Monday's Pitching Mismatches

Doug Upstone

Monday, July 27, 2015 2:31 PM GMT

It has to be a great feeling starting a new series coming off a surprising victory as a underdog. Today, three clubs with Sunday's upsets are dogs again according to the betting odds.

Though players are not aware of the exact MLB odds like baseball handicappers, they can surmise what their role is by the matchup and after such a win the prior day, they often will believe they can duplicate such a feat again. Here is preview of three teams and their starting pitchers in the role of pooches and how they might do for MLB picks. Coming off a 15-6 week, I have even more street cred these days.

 

Braves vs. Orioles: Atlanta Looks to Battle Baltimore with Wood
The Braves might have lost series at St. Louis, but taking a hard fought 3-2 game yesterday as +180 underdogs has to help their confidence. Atlanta weakened their team Friday by trading Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson to the Mets, but they were not going to be a playoff team with them and decided to continue the rebuilding process.

Atlanta did welcome back Freddie Freeman yesterday for the first time in over 5 1/2 weeks and rookie third baseman Adonis Garcia hit his first career home run off Michael Wacha Sunday. Braves right-fielder Nick Markakis returns to Camden Yards tonight after being an Oriole his whole career and hopes teammate Alex Wood (7-6, 3.78 ERA) pitches better than he has a late with 7.29 ERA in last three starts.

After losing 15 of 20, Baltimore won their last two at Tampa Bay and is back home as -175 home favorites at several sportsbooks we checked (Wagerweb.ag was still at -166). Though the Orioles Kevin Gausman (1-2, 5.18) has not been sharp, for sports picks, nearly impossible not to back the Birds who are 25-4 at home versus NL teams scoring 3.8 or less runs a game.

Disadvantage - Wood and Atlanta

 

Royals vs. Indians: KC Trying to Keep Rolling Behind Volquez
Kansas City has reunited Edinson Volquez (9-5, 3.15) and Johnny Cueto back from their Cincy days, which likely makes the defending AL champions that much stronger. Having won 14 of their last 19, the Royals are brimming with confidence after knocking around All-Star Dallas Keuchel for 10 hits as +105 underdogs and having Yordano Ventura have his best start since the end of May in the 5-1 triumph.

Volquez and Kansas City visit slumping Cleveland, where Progressive Field has turned into a house of horrors for them. Having been swept in a four-game series by the White Sox, the Indians have dumped six in a row at home and have the second-worst record in the majors at 19-30 and are by far the worst wager at -22.3 units.

Volquez and his team are +100 road underdogs in Monday's MLB Odds, but he has 1.85 ERA in last four starts and K.C. is 10-2 against an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season.

Advantage - Volquez and Kansas City

 

Rockies vs. Cubs: Colorado Tries to Take Offense on the Road
You cannot blame Jorge De La Rosa (6-4, 4.62) of Colorado wanting to have his teammates save a couple of runs for tonight after they exploded and clobbered Cincinnati 17-7 Sunday as +105 underdogs.

De La Rosa and the Rockies are +150 away underdogs against the Cubs who are swooning having lost nine of 14. The left-hander is 4-0 with a 2.32 ERA in 10 appearances - six starts - against Chicago, who was just swept by the lowly Phillies at Wrigley.

However, Colorado is in a poor situation, as they are 3-18 as an underdog of +150 or more this season and take on a Chicago squad that is a perfect 8-0 at home after a loss by six runs or more the last two seasons.

Disadvantage - De La Rosa and Colorado