Of the twelve MLB matchups on Monday's slate, this handicapping professional is focusing on the Reds vs. Cubs and Giants vs. Dodgers for his over/under picks.
Reds (Lorenzen) vs. Cubs (Hendricks) 8:05 PM ET
Michael Lorenzen will make his first start since being demoted to the minors earlier this month. His previous start for the Reds came on August 11th at San Diego. It was certainly a forgetful outing for Lorenzen, considering he allowed 7 earned runs during just 1 1/3 innings pitched. As a matter of fact, during his last five starts with Cincinnati, Lorenzen posted a gigantic 12.57 ERA and 2.33 WHIP. The Reds 23 year old right-hander has made two starts versus the Cubs this year, and had an awful 8.68 ERA in those outings. The Reds are 6-3 over the total in their last nine road games.
Kyle Hendricks has displayed poor form over his previous three starts, compiling a 7.54 ERA and 1.88 WHIP during that stretch. Hendricks has a lofty 4.91 ERA in two starts versus the Reds this season. The Cubs have gone 13-5 over the total during their last 18 games at Wrigley Field.
MLB Totals Betting Angle
Note before placing your MLB picks that any team (in this case the Reds) that scored 1 run or less during a loss to a divisional opponent in their previous game, and has a pitcher (Lorenzen) that’s posted a 7.00 ERA or worse during his previous five starts, resulted in that team going 46-21 (68.7%) over the total since 2011. The average total in those sixty-seven contests was 8.4, and there was 10.1 runs scored per game.
MLB Picks: Play on the Reds and Cubs over 8.0 (-105) at Pinnacle
Giants (Peavy) vs. Dodgers (Anderson) 10:10 PM ET
Jake Peavy has been in shaky form during his last three starts, evidenced by an unimpressive 5.50 ERA and 1.56 WHIP during those appearances. Peavy has gone 3-0 over the total in three starts versus NL West opponents in 2015 with a sizable 7.71 ERA. The Giants are 38-21 (64.4%) over the total on the road this year, and that includes five of six surpassing the number at Dodger Stadium.
Brett Anderson has struggled in his last two starts at home, posting a large 8.18 ERA and 1.91 WHIP during those outings. Despite coming off a home series versus the Cubs in which all three games stayed under, Los Angeles is still 38-26 (59.4%) over the total at Dodger Stadium in 2015.
MLB Picks: Play on the Giants and Dodgers over 7.5 (-110)