Pair of MLB Picks for White Sox vs. Twins Series Finale: Money Line & Total Odds Attracting Our Attention

Darin Zank

Sunday, May 3, 2015 1:08 PM UTC

Sunday, May. 3, 2015 1:08 PM UTC

Minnesota shoots for a sweep of a four-game series with the White Sox Sunday afternoon at Target Field. Do we bring the brooms for our free MLB pick on this contest?

White Sox-Twins Sunday Betting Odds
Most of Sunday's MLB betting odds market opened Minnesota and Mike Pelfrey at around -130 over Chicago and John Danks, with a total of 8.5 runs. Many books then dropped that price in the early betting about a dime, to the -120 range.


Sox-Twins Sunday Preview
These teams met three weeks ago in Chicago, the Sox taking two of three games from Minnesota. But the Twins have taken the first three games of this series, winning Thursday 12-2, Friday 1-0 and Saturday 5-3. So Minnesota has won six of its last eight games overall, while Chicago has lost four in a row.

Twins pitching has now held seven of its last 10 opponents to three runs or less.

On the other hand Chicago has tallied just five runs in this series, and been held to three runs or less in 13 of its first 21 games this season. The Sox have also played seven UNDERS in their last 10 games, and they haven't hit a homer since April 22.

Bigger-picture, at 12-12 Minnesota sits in third place in the American League Central, four games behind first-place Kansas City, while at 8-13 Chicago occupies fourth place, 6.5 games behind the Royals.


Sunday's Starters
Pelfrey is two-for-four on quality starts this year, and two for his last two. Tuesday he held Detroit – one of the better lineups in baseball – to two runs – one earned – and three hits through seven innings, and just before that he threw seven shutout innings against Kansas City. On the season Pelfrey has allowed six ER and 27 base-runners (hits + walks) in 24 innings of work. Minnesota is 3-1 in Pelfrey's starts, while the totals have leaned toward the UNDERS by a 3-1 margin.

Pelfrey started against the White Sox three weeks ago, allowing four runs and seven hits, including a couple of dingers, in five innings of a 5-4 Twins defeat.

Danks, by our tough standards, is 0-for-four on quality starts this season. Last Sunday he allowed three runs in six innings against Kansas City, and just before that he gave up three runs in six innings against Cleveland. For the season Danks has allowed 14 runs and 30 base-runners through 22 1/3 innings. Chicago has split Danks' four starts, while the totals have leaned toward the UNDERS by a 3-0-1 margin.

Danks started three times against Minnesota last season, and didn't fare too well, getting clipped for 17 runs and 27 hits through 16 2/3 innings. The Sox lost all three of those games.

As for the comparison of the bullpens Chicago relievers rank sixth in the Majors with a 2.70 ERA, with three saves in three chances, while the Twins pen ranks 18th in ERA at 3.84, with nine saves in 11 chances.


Sunday's Battling Splits
Keep in mind before placing your MLB picks that Chicago owns a .311 team OBP and a .360 team slugging percentage against right-handed pitching this season, while Minnesota owns a .318 OBP and a pedestrian .351 slugging percentage against lefties.


White Sox-Twins Free Pick
Minnesota is the hotter team at the moment, and Pelfrey has been tough recently. We like the Twins to complete the sweep today. Also, with Chicago struggling so badly to score, this game should stay UNDER the total.

Free MLB Picks: Minnesota -119 at GT Bets and UNDER 8.5 runs (+110) at 5Dimes

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