Pair of MLB Picks for Sunday's Yankees-Twins Matchup

Darin Zank

Sunday, July 26, 2015 11:47 AM GMT

The Yankees are short favorites for Sunday's rubber match with the Twins at Target Field, and after rallying for a victory Saturday night New York looks like the smart betting choice for today. 

Yanks-Twins Sunday Betting Odds
In the early action on our MLB odds board New York and Nathan Eovaldi could be found giving -110 at 5Dimes, while Minnesota and Kyle Gibson were getting +106 at Heritage. And the total on today's game sat at 8.5 runs, with most of the grease leaning toward the UNDER.

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The Situation
These teams have split the first two games of this series, after New York's 8-5 victory Saturday. The Yankees actually trailed yesterday 5-0, but rallied for the victory, with big help from Alex Rodriguez and his three home runs, the last of which tied the game in the top of the ninth. John Ryan Murphy then followed with a three-run shot a few batters later for the win.

So the Yanks have won 10 of their last 13 games, while Minnesota has lost five of its last seven.

At 54-42 New York now leads the AL East by 5.5 games over second-place Toronto.

The Twinkies, meanwhile, at 52-45, trail first-place Kansas City by 6.5 games in the AL Central, but still lead the battle for the second American League wild-card spot by three games over the Blue Jays.

 

Sunday's Starters
Gibson (8-7, 3.19) is 10-for-19 on quality starts this season. He got bombed Tuesday by the Angels for six runs and 10 hits through five innings, but just before that he strung four QS in a row, allowing just four earned runs over his previous 27 2/3 innings. On the season Gibson has allowed 112 hits through 119 innings, walked 37 and struck out 84.

Minnesota is 10-9 in Gibson's starts, with the totals leaning toward the UNDERS by a 10-6 margin.

In three career starts against the Yanks, most recently a minor mugging last July, Gibson has allowed 15 ER and 22 hits through just 12 1/3 innings; the Twins lost two of those games, and all three games played OVER.

Eovaldi (9-2, 4.43) owns some lousy internals, but has been better as of late. On the season he's just six-for-19 on quality starts, but Tuesday he held Baltimore to two runs through 5 2/3 innings, and over his last six starts he's limited foes to 11 runs through 33 1/3 innings. On the season Eovaldi has allowed 127 hits through 104 innings, with 29 walks and 75 strikeouts.

The Yankees are 12-7 in Eovaldi's starts, with the totals leaning OVER 11-8.

This will be Eovaldi's first-ever start against Minnesota, which could give him an edge, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.

 

Sunday's Batting Splits
New York ranks ninth in the Bigs against right-handed pitching this season with a .260 team batting average, and eighth with a .322 team on-base percentage.

Minnesota ranks 19th against righties with a .251 average and 25th with a .303 team OBP.

 

Ballpark Totals Factor
Games played at Target Field this season are 25-20 on the OVERS, averaging 8.8 runs per.

Click Here for Another Capper's Take on This Matchup

Yanks-Twins Sunday Free Picks
Our guess is Minnesota has been playing a bit above its head for most of this season. But perhaps reality is setting in, with the Twins in a recent mini-funk. We'll take New York with our MLB picks today. Also, both starting pitchers have been good as of late, so we're thinking UNDER.

Picks: Yankees -110 and UNDER 8.5 runs (-114) at 5Dimes