Padres vs. Mets MLB Picks and Predictions

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Padres vs. Mets MLB Picks and Predictions
SAN DIEGO, CA - JUNE 6: Dominic Smith #2 of the New York Mets tries to steal second base ahead of the throw to Jake Cronenworth #9 of the San Diego Padres during the second inning of a baseball game at Petco Park on June 6, 2021 in San Diego, California. Smith was out on the play. Denis Poroy/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by DENIS POROY / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Are you ready for a duel between Cy Young winners? If so, Friday’s series opener in New York between the Mets and San Diego Padres is just for you, and carries the lowest total of the day at top sportsbooks.

San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets

Friday, June 11, 2021 – 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field

Both sides took Thursday off in advance of spending a second consecutive weekend together. The Padres used the time to travel east from San Diego following a disappointing 3-4 homestand, and are sitting third in the NL West as they begin this road trip that will take them back home through Colorado. The Mets are back home after a 9-game roadie that began out west, New York enjoying the penthouse view in the NL East.

Game 1 finds Blake Snell (2-2, 4.82), the 2018 AL Cy Young winner, pitted against Jacob deGrom (5-2, 0.62), who dragged home the 2018-19 NL awards. New York is priced at about -165 on the money line, and the 5½-run total is two runs lower than any other Friday contest on the best betting sites.

Friars Lead Majors in Stolen Bases

With the exception of Monday’s 9-4 decision over the Cubs, San Diego sticks were awfully quiet on the recent homestand. The Padres plated only 19 runs in the seven games, almost half of those in the aforementioned win vs. Chicago, and have crossed the plate just 29 times in the last 11 games. Fernando Tatis Jr. has slumped with a .172 batting average and one homer so far in June.

Fernando Tatis Jr. #23 of the San Diego Padres looks on . Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images/AFP

Was his performance a week ago against the Mets a signal Snell is about to turn around his slow start to 2021? Perhaps, and it was definitely his best start of the year. Snell entered the contest with a 5.55 ERA along with a -165 tag on the MLB betting odds and delivered seven innings of 1-hit, 10-K baseball in the 2-0 final. San Diego was 4-7 in his first 11 outings, and Snell was coming off a month of May when his ERA was 6.84.

Snell closed his 2020 campaign with a loss at Citi Field in an interleague matchup between the Rays and Mets, the southpaw allowing three ER while pitching into the sixth inning. He was brilliant in a 2018 assignment on the New York mound, posting zeroes into the eighth of a Tampa Bay win. Those were the only two times Snell had seen the Mets before facing them a week ago.

New York Off Interleague Split with O’s

That’s some conspiracy theory that New York's first baseman Pete Alonso has come up with. Personally, I don’t think MLB is smart enough to pull off such a stunt, which according to Alonso is doctoring the baseball from one season to the next in an attempt to keep free agent contracts down. But hey, what do I know? I’m just a fan of top betting sites who watches sluggers as Alonso hits into shifts one game after another.

Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets pitches. Denis Poroy/Getty Images/AFP

If Rob Manfred and the owners really have dumbed down the baseball this season, then you won’t get any complaints from deGrom. There’s really no reason the righthander shouldn’t be a perfect 9-0 at this point. His own bats were blanked in two of the three starts New York lost with deGrom on the bump, and his bullpen imploded in the other.

Everything was working last Saturday in a 4-0 win over the Padres, deGrom tossing seven shutout innings while his bullpen and offense did their jobs. The contest closed with deGrom as -120 chalk at Bovada, and he’s 5-3 with a 1.39 ERA in 10 career starts against the Padres. Victor Caratini is the only San Diego hitter who’s had much success against the New York ace, batting .333 (4-12) with two HR.

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Mets Have Beaten Pads

Last weekend’s long set in San Diego resulted in a split, the Padres winning the first two games and the Mets taking the final two. The totals, which ran from 5½-7, also halved. Both sides begin this series with flat records in the totals column, San Diego 32-31-1 O/U/P and New York 25-25-2. It has been about 23 months since the clubs last collided at Citi Field, the Mets winning two of the three and ‘under’ bettors cashing twice.

A cloudy evening is in store for Queens, but there’s no rain in the forecast. The thermometer should be around 70° for deGrom’s first pitch, with an 8-10 mph SE breeze (out to left). Maybe that wind will help a few fly balls get out of the park, but I’m backing the arms with my free MLB pick and going with the ‘under.’

Free MLB Pick: Under 5½ (+102) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Under 5 1/2(+102)
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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.