Padres vs. Marlins MLB Picks: Underrated Pitchers & Poor Offenses Signal Low Scoring Game

Charles Stark

Thursday, July 30, 2015 11:11 PM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 30, 2015 11:11 PM UTC

With these two teams out of the playoff race I will back under the total when the Padres take on the Marlins. Although this is not a marquee matchup, I think there is good value on the under here with two underrated pitchers against two poor offenses.

Oddsmakers have come out with this game at 7.5 on the total, but the juice is a little bit high on the under. Still, although I'm not a big fan of paying higher juice, I still like the total on this game to go under so there is some value for me on this play. There isn't a lot of wiggle room on this game and I would wait for the line to move a little bit to get better value because right now the best MLB odds on the under are at BetOnline and Sportsbetting with the under 7.5 at +110.


Pitching Matchup
After a rough start, Ian Kennedy of the San Diego Padres is finally starting to pitch like he is capable of and comes in with a 4.58 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. This will be an interesting matchup for him because he just pitched against Miami in his last start, where he allowed one run off of seven hits in six innings, and that one run coming off a home run. In his last five starts he has been really solid, allowing only 10 runs total over 21 innings. He has only allowed one run in five of his last 10 starts, and in those 10 starts total the most he has allowed in any is three runs, which he did in three starts. Simply put, he is starting to look like the pitcher the Padres had anticipated he would be.

David Phelps gets the start for the Marlins and he is in the same boat as Kennedy, having pitched against the Padres in his last start. He allowed two earned runs over six innings in that outing. He comes in with a 3.86 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the year, and despite one bad outing in Colorado, he has thrown well in the last 10 games that he has pitched (seven of them starts). He has allowed just six earned runs over 18 innings over his last three starts.


Score to Win
Both the Marlins and the Padres rank in the bottom half of the league in every major offensive category. Although the Padres have hit the ball a little bit better recently, they rank 23rd in runs scored per game with Miami ranking 27th, and in OPS the Marlins rank 24th with the Padres ranked in the very bottom of the league. Miami is actually semi-decent in batting average, ranking 10th in the league, but again we see the Padres ranked at the very bottom.

Phelps has an overall home ERA of 3.15 and he should be able to keep down a lackluster Padres offense. On the other side Kennedy is starting to come into form and should have no problem with a weak Miami offense. Look for the pitchers to dominate this game and for a final well below the number, back the under with confidence.

MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (+110) at BetOnline

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