Padres vs. Giants Predictions: San Diego Road Woes to Continue on Sunday

Mark Lathrop

Sunday, April 30, 2017 1:59 PM UTC

Sunday, Apr. 30, 2017 1:59 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapper gets one last shot at the April schedule, and here he finds a team struggling on the road with a pitcher on the mound struggling with control. Read on as he breaks down his pick on the San Francisco Giants.

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants  

The San Diego Padres finish up a road series at San Francisco on Sunday afternoon and starting pitcher Clayton Richard hopes to keep things under control in his turn in the rotation. He was roughed up in his last start out, giving up six earned runs in just 3.2 innings pitched at Arizona last Tuesday. Control has been an issue for Richard in the starts he has struggled, with a direct correlation between walks allowed and losses so far this year.

Richard pitched against the Giants earlier in April and got bit by the long ball. He lasted six innings and gave up just five hits, but two of those were dingers and he gave up 5 runs, 4 earned. Actually, home runs have been an issue for Richard all season, as his 33.3% HR/FB rate suggests. But that is actually a little bit misleading, as Richard is an extreme ground ball pitcher. On the year, Richard has allowed a 19.8% line drive rate, 64.6% ground ball rate, and 15.6% fly ball rate. So really, it is just under one out of every 20 balls that are put into play that are leaving the yard.

Ty Blach gets the start for the Giants – his second start of the season this year. He started 2017 in the bullpen, but after giving up runs in just 1 of 7 appearances he was next in line for a rotation spot. Blach has been murder against left-handed batters so far this year, giving up a minuscule .063 batting average against. In fact, Blach has not given up a hit to a left-hander in ten at-bats at home on the season. All of these stats should be taken with a grain of salt though with Blach only pitching 10.2 innings. Still, his 5 innings of 2-run ball last time out against the Dodgers are a really good sign of things to come.

San Diego and San Francisco are both in the basement of the NL West to start the season, at 9-16 and 9-15 coming into Saturday, respectively. San Diego has been especially bad on the road, winning games at a poor 4-12 clip. The Padres were only projected to win around 70 games this year, so that is not much of a surprise. More surprising is the start for the Giants, who were projected to win over 88 games on the season and compete for the division. I’m expecting these trends to start coming to fruition, or at least the Giants to start climbing back to .500 at the expense of the Padres, so for my MLB pick, I will be taking the Giants at home against a pitcher struggling with control on Sunday afternoon.


Free MLB Pick: Giants -130Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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