Padres vs. Giants MLB Picks: Series Preview & Odds Analysis

Darin Zank

Monday, May 4, 2015 1:39 PM UTC

Monday, May. 4, 2015 1:39 PM UTC

San Francisco pitching hasn't allowed a run since last Saturday, following Tuesday's 6-0 victory. How many runs might the Giants give up as they shoot for the series sweep Wednesday afternoon?

6th MAY
Wednesday's Game 3

By: Ron Patrick


Game 3 Betting Odds
Most of Wednesday's MLB Odds market opened San Francisco and Chris Heston at around -125 over San Diego with Ian Kennedy, with a total of seven runs. Many books then bumped the Giants about a nickel, to the -130 range, in the early betting.


Game 2 Recap
San Francisco received a pleasant surprise in the form of seven shutout innings from starter Ryan Vogelsong on its way to a 6-0 victory Tuesday night, its second shutout in this series and third straight blanking overall. The Giants won as -115 favorites on the betting line, and the game played UNDER its total of seven runs, as neither team scored after the fifth inning.

San Francisco scored twice in the second inning and three times in the third, giving Vogelsong a comfort zone in which to come up with his second quality outing of this season.

So after starting this season 4-10 the Giants have won 10 of their last 13 games.

San Diego, meanwhile, after scoring 26 runs while sweeping three games from Colorado last weekend, has now gone 20 innings without plating a run.

Padres starter Andrew Cashner gave up six runs – four earned – over six innings Tuesday.


Wednesday's Starters
Heston is four-for-five on quality starts this season. Last Friday he held the Angels to one run through 6 1/3 innings, which was a nice rebound after getting clipped for six runs in less than six innings against Colorado his previous time out. On the season Heston has allowed nine earned runs and 38 base-runners (hits + walks) through 32 1/3 innings; San Francisco is 3-2 in his starts, with the totals leaning toward the UNDERS by a 4-0-1 margin.

In Heston's only career start against San Diego last September he gave up three runs and six hits in four innings of a game the Giants won 9-3.

Kennedy is one-for-three on quality starts this season, but coming off his best effort thus far. Through his first two starts he gave up eight runs in less than seven innings of work, but last Friday he held Colorado to two runs and four hits through six innings. On the season Kennedy has allowed 10 runs and 19 base-runners through 12 2/3 innings; San Diego is 1-2 in his starts, with the totals going 2-1.

Since the beginning of last season Kennedy has started four times against San Francisco, giving up six earned runs and 26 base-runners in 22 1/3 innings; the Padres split those four games, with three of those games playing UNDER.


Game 3 Free Picks
San Francisco is hot, and we like what we've seen out of Heston. So we'll go with the Giants to sweep this series. Also, with San Diego struggling with the sticks, we like the UNDER for our MLB picks on today's game.

Free MLB Picks: San Francisco -128 at Heritage and UNDER seven runs (+102) at Pinnacle


5th MAY
Tuesday's Game 2

By: Ron Patrick


Padres-Giants Game 2 Betting Odds
As of early Tuesday morning the best line we could find on San Diego with Andrew Cashner was the -119 offered at GT Bets, while San Francisco and Ryan Vogelsong were getting +110 at WagerWeb. And most books were listing the total on tonight's game at seven runs.


Game 1 Recap
Madison Bumgarner twirled a beauty, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning, out-dueling Tyson Ross, leading San Francisco to its fourth straight victory, 2-0. The Giants scored the only runs of the game in the bottom of the third inning on an Angel Pagan single and a bases-loaded walk by Justin Maxwell. After that the Padres got just two runners as far as second base, and came up empty on a first-and-second, nobody-out situation in the top of the seventh.

Somehow, San Francisco survived committing four errors.

Giants runners, though, stole three bases Monday night.

San Diego started nine right-handed batters against lefty Bumgarner, and still only came up with two hits.

San Francisco won as a -140 betting favorite Monday night, and the game stayed UNDER its total of 6.5 runs.

Ross, who has struggled so far this season, came up with his best line of the year, allowing just two runs and seven hits through seven innings.


Handicapping Starting Pitchers
Keep in mind when placing your MLB picks that Vogelsong is one-for-three on quality starts this year, to go along with a pair of relief appearances. Last Wednesday he got nicked for six runs in three innings against the Dodgers, allowing four home runs, and on the season he's allowed 20 earned runs and 39 base-runners (28 hits + 11 walks) through 19 1/3 innings. San Francisco is 1-2 in Vogelsong's starts, with the totals going 2-1.

Last year Vogelsong started twice against San Diego, giving up eight runs – five earned – and 13 base-runners through 10 1/3 innings. The Giants lost both those games.

Cashner is four-for-five on quality starts this season, and four for his last four. Last Wednesday he held Houston to two earned runs through seven innings, with 10 strikeouts – in fact, he whiffed the first six batters he faced. And over his last four starts he's allowed just four ER through 26 innings. On the season Cashner has allowed nine ER (and eight unearned runs) and 40 base-runners through 31 innings; San Diego is just 1-4 in his starts, with the totals going 3-1-1.

Last year Cashner started twice against San Francisco, allowing eight runs and 12 hits through 13 innings; the Padres split those two games.


Tuesday's Batting Splits
San Diego owns a .297 team OBP and a .411 team slugging percentage against right-handed pitching this season.

San Francisco owns a .319 OBP and a .376 slugging percentage against righties.


Game 2 Free Pick
Cashner owns the edge in the pitching match-up, but the Giants are playing with some spark at the moment. If they can just get five decent innings or so from Vogelsong, they'll have a nice chance of winning this game as a home dog in MLB Odds. Also, in thinking that each team should be able to score at least three runs tonight, we like the OVER.

Free MLB Picks: San Francisco +110 at WagerWeb and OVER seven runs (-110) at Pinnacle


4th MAY
Monday's Series Opener

By: Ron Patrick


Padres-Giants Game 1 Betting Odds
Some baseball books opened San Francisco and Madison Bumgarner at MLB Odds upwards of -160 over San Diego and Tyson Ross, with the total at 6.5 runs. Some of those same books then dropped that price considerably, down to around -135.

Also, BetOnline was chalking the Giants at -135 to win this series, with the Padres getting +115.


Padres-Giants Series Set-Up
San Francisco just swept a three-game inter-league series from the Angels over the weekend, winning 3-2 Friday, 5-4 Saturday and 5-0 Sunday. Giants pitching held Anaheim's sticks to just 16 hits on the weekend, just three of those for extra bases.

So Frisco, after a terrible start to this season, is 2-1-1 over its last four series, with eight wins in its last 11 games.

Also, with two of three games playing UNDER the totals over the weekend, games played at AT&T Park this season have skewed toward the UNDERS by a 9-4 margin.

San Diego just swept three games at home from Colorado, winning 14-3 Friday, 4-2 Saturday and 8-6 Sunday. But just prior to that the Padres had been swept three games by Houston; just before that they lost two of three to the Dodgers; and just before that they lost the last two games of a series against the Rockies. So San Diego has been running a bit hot/cold so far this season.

Also, with two of last weekend's games going OVER the totals, the Padres are now 16-9 on the OVERS this season.

Big-picture, at 14-12 San Diego sits in second place in the NL West, three games behind the division-leading Dodgers, while at 12-13 San Francisco trails LA by 4.5 games.

This is the second meeting between these divisional rivals this season; three weeks ago the Padres took three of four games from the Giants down at Petco, with the totals splitting 2-2. Bumgarner took a loss in that series, while Ross picked up a W the next day.

Keep in mind when preparing your MLB picks that last year San Diego actually took the season series from the eventual World Series champion Giants 10 games to nine.


Monday's Starters
Ross, by our tough standards, is just one-for-five on quality starts this season. Last Tuesday he gave up four runs in five innings against Houston, so on the season he's allowed 14 runs and 45 base-runners (27 hits + 18 walks) through 27 2/3 innings. San Diego is 2-3 in Ross' starts, with the totals tilting toward the OVERS by a 4-1 margin.

Since the beginning of last season Ross has started three times against San Francisco, including what we'll call a decent effort back on April 12, when he allowed three runs and nine base-runners in six innings of a 6-4 Padres victory. Over those last three starts against the Giants Ross has given up seven runs and 24 base-runners through 19 1/3 innings; San Diego won all three of those games, with two playing OVER.

Bumgarner is three-for-five on quality starts this year, and two for his last two. Last Tuesday he held the Dodgers to one run through eight innings, with one walk and nine strikeouts, and just before that he held that same LA outfit to two runs through 6 1/3 innings. On the season Bumsie has allowed 13 runs and 38 base-runners through 31 1/3 innings. San Francisco is 3-2 in Bumgarner's starts, with the totals going 3-2.

Bumgarner has started just twice against the Padres over the last season-plus, including a lousy effort back on April 11, when he gave up five runs and 10 hits in less than three innings. Over those last two starts he's been touched for nine ER and 17 hits in just eight innings; the Giants lost both those games, and both games played OVER.


Monday's Batting Splits
San Diego owns a .356 team OBP and a .419 team slugging percentage against left-handed pitching this season.

San Francisco owns a .318 OBP and a .380 slugging percentage against righties this year.


Padres-Giants Game 1 Free Picks
Despite Bumgarner's recent struggles with San Diego we still give him the edge in the pitching match-up. And San Francisco looks like it's picking up its game, after the poor start. So we like the Giants to take this series opener. Also, despite the UNDERS run at AT&T Park this season, with Ross going, and the Padres bullpen struggling (a 4.93 ERA), we figure these teams can combine for seven runs tonight.

Free MLB Picks: San Francisco -135 at WagerWeb and OVER 6.5 runs (-115) at YouWager

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