Padres vs. Mets MLB Picks, Predictions: Pitcher’s Duel Open NL Wild Card Round
Yu Darvish and Max Scherzer will face off on Friday night as the San Diego Padres visit the New York Mets for the NL Wild Card Series. Check out our top Padres-Mets picks below.
The MLB playoffs are here with the new Wild Card Round format. The Mets are hosting the Padres in a best-of-three series with the winner moving on to face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS.
It’s shaping up to be a pitcher’s duel in New York with Yu Darvish slated to face off against Max Scherzer in Game 1.
Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Friday’s Padres vs. Mets Wild Card Game 1 (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Unibet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Padres vs. Mets Game Info
Date: Friday, Oct. 7, 8:07 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Citi Field, Queens, NY
Weather: 58 degrees, 5% chance of precipitation, 7.4-mph winds blowing in from left
Padres vs. Mets Odds
Padres vs. Mets Odds Analysis
The Mets have drawn 93% of the cash and 77% of the tickets so far and are between -145 (DraftKings) and -162 (FanDuel) moneyline favorites. The Padres are between +120 (BetMGM) and +136 (FanDuel).
The total opened at 6.5 but has moved down to a flat 6 across the board despite a slight majority of the money coming in on the Over.
Padres vs. Mets Projected Pitchers
Yu Darvish (16-8, 3.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) vs. Max Scherzer (11-5, 2.29 ERA, 0.91 WHIP)
Darvish was consistent for the Padres this season, allowing three or fewer earned runs in 25 of his 30 starts. In fact, he allowed more than three earned runs only twice since June 1. Darvish pitched twice against the Mets this season, throwing seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball on June 7 in a 7-0 Padres win and outdueling Scherzer at Citi Field on July 22 with one run allowed across 7 innings.
Scherzer has been one of the best pitchers in the game and that didn’t change this season. He allowed two or fewer earned runs in 17 of 23 starts and didn’t allow more than four earned runs in a game. He made only one start against San Diego this season, and allowed two runs on five hits over 6 innings in that aforementioned matchup against Darvish.
Padres vs. Mets Picks
Padres vs. Mets Moneyline Pick
Padres (+146) ★★★
I’m not overly confident in the Padres, but I think this is a mispriced line. We’re getting some value with FanDuel offering +146 while other books are as low as +125. On top of that, I mentioned Darvish’s two wins against the Mets in the regular season, including one against Scherzer.
The Mets struggled last weekend against the Atlanta Braves and Darvish is on the level of those pitchers, not the ones that New York beat up on against the Washington Nationals in meaningless games to close out the season.
This game should be more of a coin flip than this +146 line, which implies only a 40.65% chance to win. The Padres went 4-2 against the Mets this season.
Padres vs. Mets O/U Pick
Over 6 (-117) ★★
I’m sorry but this line is just too low. Even with Darvish and Scherzer facing off, there’s always a chance for something funky to happen. All it takes is a few hits in a row and a team can put up a few runs in an inning. I could easily see one team scoring two or three runs early and the other coming back to tie it later in the game.
Padres vs. Mets Prop Pick
Scherzer Over 5.5 strikeouts (-125) ★★★★
Scherzer had 173 strikeouts in 145 1/3 innings this season for a K/9 rate of 10.7. He had six or more strikeouts in 18 of his 23 starts, including eight in six innings in his lone start against the Padres.
The Mets co-ace had six double-digit strikeout performances, along with three outings with nine strikeouts, two with eight, and three with seven. Consider going up the ladder on a chilly night in New York.
Where to Bet on Padres-Mets Picks
Padres-Mets picks from 10/6/2022 at 1:49 p.m. ET.
Related Articles
