Padres-Dodgers MLB Pick: Capper Expects Bolsinger to Outpitch Kennedy

David Lawrence

Saturday, May 23, 2015 2:08 PM GMT

The San Diego Padres are still hovering near the .500 mark this season. They’ll try to improve as they meet with MLB odds favorites Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.

The San Diego Padres Can Win Because…
They are encountering a team that has stopped hitting. The Dodgers got shut out in three straight games this past week against the San Francisco Giants. You could chalk up some of this to the Giants being highly motivated to beat the Dodgers. You could attribute some of this to the fact that the Giants’ pitchers know the Dodgers’ hitters really well, and have had past success dealing with Los Angeles’ batting order in San Francisco. However, three straight shutouts is really rather incredible. It’s very hard for an offensive team to not hit one home run, or get one double-ground ball-fly ball combination, or not get three straight singles in succession. Over 27 innings, a total failure to score even one run represents the kind of thing that goes beyond a normal slump. The Dodgers don’t have a very good approach at the plate right now, and this is why San Diego starter Ian Kennedy, for all his flaws and weaknesses, could still put together a good start. Kennedy hasn’t been great this season, but he did give up just one run in seven innings against San Francisco on May 6. He also gave up only two runs on just four hits in six innings against Colorado on May 1. He is capable of doing something good, and against these Dodgers, he might become a far better pitcher than he’s been in the recent past.

Must Read: Capper Looking to Make It 3 Straight Winning MLB Picks on Astros-Tigers Series

The Los Angeles Dodgers Can Win Because…
If you look at the pitching matchup, it’s a mismatch. Ian Kennedy of San Diego has been slammed multiple times this season – he’s given up at least five runs in three of his six starts this year. One of those starts came against the Dodgers, who roughed him up on April 25 for eight runs in 4 1/3 innings. Kennedy’s most recent starts have been disasters. He’s allowed a total of 11 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings. Nothing about the course of his season suggests that he’s likely to pitch a strong game here on Saturday. Maybe he’ll be tolerable – something like three runs in five innings – but nothing better than that.

This leads to a brief examination of the Dodgers’ starting pitcher in this game. Mike Bolsinger has a tiny 1.04 ERA. Yes, that’s based on only three starts this season, but Bolsinger is getting better rather than worse. In his first two starts, he gave up one run on five hits in 5 2/3 innings. In his last start, he gave up no runs on three hits in six complete innings. Bolsinger should be expected to outpitch Kennedy by a clear margin which is why MLB odds board show Dodgers as home favorites and the O/U offered at 7.5 runs. 

 

Outlook
The Dodgers are the better team here but they have struggled recently – especially at the plate. And while they have the better pitcher on the mound, the offensive woes might level things out. With all of the juice involved, go under with your MLB picks instead.

MLB Pick: Under at WagerWeb

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