This line to me is a little bit surprising with two decent pitchers on the mound but I'm going to go with the odds makers on this one and back over the total with my MLB Pick.
Recently, MLB odds have come out with some high totals for games in Arizona. But anytime a game is over 8.5, a National League game, and not in Colorado it makes my eyebrows raise. The line right now is set at nine and it may seem a little bit too high, but like I mentioned I'm going to back the odds makers and over the total, at first glance the under would look like the way to go. Right now you can still get decent odds at over the total of nine at 5Dimes +100.
San Diego Padres
Andrew Cashner takes the mound for San Diego with a 4.27 ERA, 1.43 whip, 146 strikeouts, and a 5-15 record. This year has been a tough year for him as far as wins and losses and his overall statistics. He has pitched well against Arizona though with a 2.63 ERA and 1.08 whip in four outings. Again, this just makes me wonder why this total is set so high, but I am not going to bite because Arizona has been swinging the bat well lately. Also, Cashner has struggled on the road with a 4.80 ERA and allowing batters to hit .277 against him.
The San Diego Padres rank 21st in runs scored per game at 4.10, 28th in OPS at .687, and 27th in batting hitting .244 as a team. Their statistics do not change a lot whether they are at home or away. Yesterday they managed 10 hits but were only able to produce four runs leaving eight guys on base and only going 2-7 with runners in scoring position. After going 0-5 yesterday I am anticipating that Matt Kemp will have a much better day at the plate to help produce more runs for San Diego.
Robbie Ray gets the start for Arizona and comes in with a 3.54 ERA, 1.31 whip, 97 strikeouts, and a 4-11 record. His main problem has been at home where he has stunning 4.91 ERA and batters hitting over .270 against him. He had an excellent outing his last time on the mound at home against the Dodgers though allowing zero earned runs in two hits in five innings. I don't expect him to perform as well today and I look for the Padres to get more than a few against him.
Arizona ranks fifth in the major leagues in runs scored per game at 4.48, eighth in OPS at .736, and seventh in batting average hitting .265 as a team. Most of their important offensive statistics go up at home and they are dangerous team that can score in bunches. This will be the fifth time this season they have seen Cashner, and although he has pitched very well against them, I am anticipating they will finally get some more production against him today in Arizona.
Not the most exciting game on the board today but if you like offense than this is the play for you. For one of my MLB picks I'm going to back over the total between these two teams and look for a lot of fireworks in Arizona. Don't look for either of these pitchers to get out of this game unscathed.