Padres & Colin Rea Bring MLB Pick Upset Potential vs. Mets & deGrom

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, May 5, 2016 6:39 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 5, 2016 6:39 PM UTC

The Mets may have three co-aces in their rotation including Thursday’s starter Jacob deGrom, but Colin Rea has also been pitching well, making the Padres live underdog MLB picks.


MLB Record: 14-17-1, -0.96

The home team could be undervalued with its starter in good form Thursday night when possible Cy Young contender Jacob deGrom and the New York Mets (17-9, 8-3 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander and potentially underrated Colin Rea and the San Diego Padres (11-17, 6-9 home) as the teams open up a four-game weekend series from Petco Park in San Diego, CA at 10:10 ET in a game available in FOX Sports - San Diego.

The posted money line at Bovada has San Diego as a large home underdog for this contest at current MLB odds of +163.


Mets on a Roll
The Mets have been one of the hottest teams in baseball with 13 wins in their last 16 games as they continue to get great pitching night in and night out, also allowing three runs or less in 13 of their last 16! Now at 17-9, New York has pulled to within 1½ of the 19-8 Washington Nationals in their quest to repeat as National League East Champions.

The Padres meanwhile are at the opposite end of the spectrum bringing up the rear in the National League West at 11-17, although even with that mark San Diego is still only 3½ games behind the first place San Francisco Giants in an ultra-tight division. The Padres also have a wee bit of momentum after being the winning MLB picks in two out of three games in each of their last two series, first vs. the Dodgers on the road and then vs. the Rockies here at home.


Rea Can Keep Padres in the Game
As great as the Mets’ starter deGrom is, the Padres’ starter Rea has pitched well since his dismal season debut and thus has a chance to keep the Padres in this game at a very nice price at home, making these odds worth taking. Rae is 2-1 pitching for a last place team with the Padres owning a team record of 3-2 in all of his starts, and at this early stage of the season his 4.61 ERA and 1.57 WHIP remain skewed by his rough first start.

Rae was touched up for five earned runs on six hits plus four walks in 3.1 innings his initial start, but he has since allowed three runs or less in four straight outings, most recently limiting the Dodgers to two runs on only four hits in six innings of a 5-2 win in Los Angeles on Saturday. Thus he is continuing to build on the promise he displayed last year, when he dominated in the minor leagues and then posted a 3.45 FIP for the Padres after his August call-up.

This will also be his first ever start against the Mets, which should work to his advantage.


No Knock on deGrom
This selection is by no means a knock on deGrom, as he along with Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey may form the best top three starters of any Major League rotation. In fact, deGrom is 3-0 in three starts this season while allowing a grand total of two earned runs in 17.2 innings, although he did allow three unearned runs while still getting the win over the San Francisco Giants on Saturday.

The reason deGrom has made only three starts is because he was away from the team for a while to be with his infant son who was born with medical complications about one month ago. Thankfully, for the deGrom family, those issues are now behind the infant and he was discharged from the hospital.

But back to the matters on the field, this play is based on our belief that Rae can just about match deGrom while the starters are in the game, and then these bullpens are trending in opposite directions in recent contests with the red-hot San Diego pen posting a 0.69 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in 11 innings over the last five games and the Mets’ pen slumping a bit to a 3.75 ERTA and 1.25 WHIP over that same five-game span.


Lack of Mets Success at Petco
Finally, while the Mets have obviously had the better team between these two clubs for several years now, Petco Park has not been one of their favoring stomping grounds as it is San Diego that is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings in this stadium. The Padres are also 5-2 in Rea’s last seven home starts, as well as an identical 5-2 in his last seven starts overall going back to his last two outings last season.

As great as deGrom is, the combination of Rea being in good form and the Mets recent struggles in San Diego gives the Padres nice underdog value at home hosting New York on Thursday.

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Free MLB Pick: San Diego Padres +164
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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