Overlay MLB Pick of the Day: Giants +160 over Dodgers

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, April 28, 2015 3:50 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 28, 2015 3:50 PM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Tuesday.


The underdog looks like an overlay in a great pitching matchup of elite southpaws Tuesday night when Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants (8-12, 4-6 away) pay a visit to Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers (12-7, 9-1 home) in the second game of a three-game series from Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA at 10:10 ET in a game televised nationally on MLB Network.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has San Francisco as a big road underdog for this contest at current odds of +160.

Cy Young Winner vs. World Series MVP
This seems like a big price for a game pitting the reigning Cy Young Award winner in Kershaw, who has now won the award three times in the last four years including two years in a row, and the World Series MVP from last season in Bumgarner.

Then again, this price also has to so with the performances of these teams this young season, as the Dodgers now lead the National League West and have won eight straight games at home after taking the series opener 8-3 here last night.

On the other hand the defending World Champion Giants are dead last in the division at 8-12, 4½ games behind the Dodgers at this early stage, although that had been the winning MLB picks in four of their previous games before Monday’s setback including a three-game sweep of the Dodgers in San Francisco last week.

Pitching Rematch from Last Week
And this is actually the second time these two pitchers have squared off in six games as this is a pitching rematch of the middle game of that series last Wednesday in San Francisco, when both hurlers pitched well but neither figured in the final decision in a game the Giants won 3-2 on a run in the bottom of the ninth inning.

Frankly, neither of these starters had resembled their usual selves yet this season prior to that meeting, but Kershaw responded by allowing two earned runs on six hits with a nice nine strikeouts vs. just one walk in six innings. Even with that outing though, Kershaw is just 1-1 with a disappointing 4.07 ERA, 1.32 and a .269 batting average allowed. Also, he has yet to work seven innings in any of his four starts.

We have no doubt that Clayton will get things turned around sooner rather than later, but for the time being he looks to be an overlay at these odds with his current form vs. a fellow stud pitcher.

Bumgarner Back on Track?
Similarly, Bumgarner has disappointed with a 1-1 record, 4.63 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and an ugly .295 batting average allowed, but he appeared to be back on track in that first meeting vs. Kershaw allowing two runs and six hits in 6.1 innings with six strikeouts vs. two walks.

That was actually Bumgarner’s second very good start of the season as he allowed just one run on six hits plus one walk in his seasonal debut at Arizona, but then had two stinkers in between the two good starts. Still, Bumgarner is the starter with the excellent price here coming off of a good Quality Start, and he has had a very good track record vs. the Dodgers throughout his career.

In fact, Bumgarner has made 18 lifetime appearances vs. Los Angeles including 17 starts, and he is 11-5 in those games with a 2.56 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and a .215 average allowed with 107 strikeouts in 112.2 innings vs. just 23 walks.

Great Numbers at Dodger Stadium
And Bumgarner’s success vs. the Dodgers has carried over into Dodger Stadium, where he is 7-3 in 11 appearances with a 2.19 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, .217 batting average allowed and an amazing ratio of 59 strikeouts vs. nine walks in 70 innings.

Look for Bumgarner to continue his turnaround that began vs. these Dodgers last week as San Francisco springs the upset in the rematch vs. Kershaw in Los Angeles on Tuesday.

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MLB Pick: Giants +160

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