Over Has Good Value As Blue Jays & Indians Face Off In An Offensive Slugfest

Blue Jays

Charles Stark

Friday, August 19, 2016 12:57 PM GMT

Division leaders clash today in Cleveland when the Toronto Blue Jays visit the Indians. This is going to be a tremendous series. Are the MLB Odds total set too high or just about right?

Oddsmakers have set this total across the board at 9.5 at most places with a little bit of higher juice on the under. That makes sense considering both of the starting pitchers today have shown the capability in the past to keeping teams at bay. However, for my MLB pick, I'm going to get a little bit of value and back over the total like at Pinnacle Sports +106. I believe both offenses will have good opportunities to score today.

 

Toronto Blue Jays
Francisco Liriano takes the mound for Toronto and comes in with a 5.46 ERA and 1.62 whip, and has allowed seven earned runs in just under 12 innings with the Blue Jays. I'm still not sure if his acquisition will pay dividends to the Blue Jays going forward but in his career, he has been a solid left-hander. Today though he could find some trouble against a Cleveland team that hits really well against southpaws. Liriano can limit the damage at times but he is not the type of pitcher, especially on the road, that is going to come in and be lights out. In his last 10 starts he has not gone past six innings of work and has consistently given up runs but what is more troubling is the fact that he has given up seven home runs in his last five times on the mound between Pittsburgh and Toronto. On top of that is his road ERA this season has been abysmal at over 6.00. 

At the plate, Toronto has one of the most dangerous offenses in the major leagues but they can be tempered a little bit on the road. That being said they do come into this game with a bit of momentum having scored 12 and seven runs consecutively in New York. The Blue Jays have good power numbers currently ranking second in home runs per game and seventh in OPS, they simply have guys that can flat out hit throughout the lineup.

 

Cleveland Indians
Trevor Bauer gets the start for Cleveland and comes in with a 3.97 ERA and 1.32 whip but has allowed 11 earned runs in his last two home starts in just under nine innings. His last decent home start was back in late June where he threw a three-hitter against a weak hitting Tampa Bay team but in his last four chances to pitch at home since then he has gotten knocked around. He did pitch extremely well in Toronto in early July but recently he has really struggled and I don't anticipate him to repeat that type of performance. In his last seven starts, he has a 6.50 ERA and he is facing a Toronto team that seems to be a bit of a roll winning four out of the last five games. 

Offensively Cleveland is similar to Toronto with some really good power numbers across the board ranking fifth in OPS as well as fourth in batting average. What I really like about them to be able to have a lot of quality at-bats today is the fact they hit lefties extremely well hitting .277 against them this season which ranks second in the American League.

July record: 13-9
August record: 8-6

Free MLB Pick: Over the total of 9.5 (+106 )
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle & at 5Dimes

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