Our Betting Guru's MLB Pitching Report for August 2nd

Ross Benjamin

Saturday, August 2, 2014 3:53 PM GMT

Our resident MLB betting odds guru takes a look at a pair of starting pitching matchups on Saturday. Read this revealing MLB handicapping article in which he has a lean on the MLB total in the pitching clash between Ervin Santana (Braves) and Ian Kennedy (Padres), and has given a clear advantage regarding the encounter between C.J. Wilson (Angels) and Chris Archer (Rays).

Atlanta Braves (Santana) vs. San Diego Padres (Kennedy) 8:40 PM ET
The Braves starter Ervin Santana has gone 3-0 against the money over his last 3-starts while posting an excellent 1.69 ERA in those outings. The Braves hurler just faced the Padres this past Monday in San Diego and was brilliant. In that outing he allowed no earned runs, 5-hits, struck out 11, and walked none in 8.0 innings of work. However, the Braves right-hander has seen 9 of his 11-starts this season go over the total when he’s -100 to -150 on the money line, and there was an average of 10.8 runs per game scored.

The Padres starter Ian Kennedy enters tonight having gone 3-2 against the money in his last 5-starts with a very good 2.53 ERA. The Padres right-hander has seen his last 3-starts at home all go over the total while compiling a lofty 5.07 ERA in those outings. Kennedy has gone 9-1 against the money in his career when installed as a money line home underdog of +100 to +125. This will be his first start versus the Braves this season, after facing them 3-times in 2013, and he posted a lofty 4.96 ERA in those outings.

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Advantage: I know that Ervin Santana has been very good of late, and he comes off a masterpiece performance against these same Padres less than a week ago. However, he will be facing a Padres team that’s hit .282 as a team over their last 12-games at home, and has shown some very good offensive displays over the past couple of weeks. Ian Kennedy has struggled recently at home as I touched upon earlier in this piece. I like this one to play on the high side of a very low total. My lean here is toward a high scoring affair.

 

Los Angeles Angels (Wilson) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Archer) 7:10 PM ET
The Angels starter C.J. Wilson hasn’t made a start since July 9th when he went down with a sprained right ankle. The rest he received on the DL was definitely much needed. The Angeles southpaw has shown horrible form over his past 4-starts with a mammoth 10.26 ERA and 2.34 WHIP. Wilson has gone 0-4 against the money in his last 4 on the road with an unimpressive 6.52 ERA and a large 1.91 WHIP. The veteran hurler has seen 20 of his 26-starts on the road during the last 2-seasons go over the total, and there were an average of 10.4 runs scored in those 26-games. In 5-starts versus the Rays since the start of the 2012 season he’s compiled a 3.90 ERA. 

The Rays starter Chris Archer has been steady all season. He’s not been great by any stretch of the imagination, nor has he been bad. His performance line has consistently reflected mediocrity in 2014 to this point. The Rays right-hander has gone 10-11 against the money with a solid 3.37 ERA. He’s gone 2-1 against the money versus the Angels since the beginning of the 2013 campaign with a solid 3.30 ERA.

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Advantage: Based on the fact that C.J. Wilson has been on the DL the last 3-weeks, and was in horrible form in his last 4-outings prior to that occurring, I’m certainly not expecting a miraculous turnaround of his fortunes today. Chris Archer has been the more consistent of these two pitchers this season. My edge in the starting pitching facet of this MLB handicapping equation goes to Archer over Wilson.