Orioles, Yankees to stay ‘under’ in Opener is the MLB Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Thursday, May 7, 2015 3:54 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 7, 2015 3:54 PM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Thursday.


With neither offense hitting right-handers well and two competent ones on the mound Thursday night, go ‘under’ when Chris Tillman and the Baltimore Orioles (12-13, 4-8 away) pay a visit to Nathan Eovaldi and the New York Yankees (17-11, 6-6 home) for the first game of a four-game weekend series from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, NY at 7:05 ET in a game televised nationally on MLB Network.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 8½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -120.

Three runs in two games in New York So Far
The Orioles are actually playing six games in New York this week as they just concluded a brief two-game interleague series vs. the Mets in Flushing, and the results were not pretty as Baltimore lost both games while scoring a grand total of three runs. In fact, that currently leaves the Orioles on a 5-0 ‘under’ run as the lineup sorely misses the departed Major League home run champion in Nelson Cruz, who again leads the league this year but with the Seattle Mariners.

The Yankees meanwhile were the losing MLB picks in two of their three games north of the border vs. the Blue Jays in Toronto to begin this week, ending a 4-2 road trip that began with a three-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox this past weekend. The bad news is that the Bronx Bombers scored exactly one run in each of the two losses in Toronto, most recently vs. Mark Buehrle and three relievers last night.

Nice First Year in American League
Eovaldi had spent his career with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Miami Marlins of the National League before this season, and although you may not know it by his 3.81 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, he has actually pitched well in his first season in the American League, most recently holding those Red Sox to two runs on seven hits in 6.2 innings on Saturday to improve to 2-0 in a Yankee uniform.

Eovaldi is a very hard thrower that has reached 100.6 MPH on his fastball while averaging 95.2 MPH this season, and he has the potential to be almost unhittable when he has his command. Well, that command has been there so far with 22 strikeouts vs. six walks in 28.1 innings, and the reason why the ERA and WHIP are not better has been allowing a .380 BABIP that is certain to normalize. And once it does, his mainstream stats should converge to his sabre numbers.

Also the Orioles are mostly unfamiliar with Eovaldi with this being his first season in the AL, which cannot be good for a Baltimore lineup batting just .231 vs. right-handed pitchers on the road this year while averaging 3.68 runs per game as it is, compared to a .288 average and 4.15 runs vs. southpaws on the road.

Tillman Tough vs. Yankees Last Season
Tillman is off to a slow start in 2015 for the Orioles at 2-3 with a bloated 6.23 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. However, that is mainly due to two dreadful outings as Tillman has pitched well in three of his five starts including vs. the Rays last time out, when he allowing just two runs and three hits with seven strikeouts in seven innings in an unlucky 2-0 loss last Friday.

Granted Tillman struggled with the Yankees early in his career, but that began to change last season when he posted a 1.98 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in four starts vs. New York covering 27.1 innings, yielding just a .210 batting average. And Tillman did have a combined record of 29-13 over the past two seasons after all so he should be just fine once he heats up a bit.

It also helps to be facing a Yankee lineup batting just .227 vs. right-handed pitchers here at Yankee Stadium this young season.

Both Teams Trending ‘under’
Finally the ‘under’ is now 13-5 in the Orioles’ last 18 road games, as well as 7-2 in the Yankees’ last nine games overall.

Look for those ‘under’ patterns to continue when Baltimore visits the New York Yankees for the series opener in the Bronx on Thursday.

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MLB Pick: Orioles, Yankees ‘under’ 8½ (-120)

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