Orioles-Yankees Over 7.5 (+100) for Tuesday's MLB Picks

Willie Bee

Tuesday, September 23, 2014 1:17 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 23, 2014 1:17 PM UTC

The MLB odds are long that the New York Yankees can make the playoffs, but they haven't given up yet and are solid favorites to beat the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday.

Derek Jeter has witnessed a lot during his 20-year career with New York, but one thing he hasn't seen is the Yankees miss the AL playoffs two seasons in a row.  The Captain would like to keep it that way and lead his club to another win Tuesday night over the Baltimore Orioles.

Jeter stepped up Monday with three ribbies to back Michael Pineda's fine pitching in New York's 5-0 victory as small chalk in the opener of a 4-game set, his last regular season series at home before he wraps things up in Boston this weekend.

The Orioles had already won the season series from the Yankees before this series got underway, the loss still leaving them with an 11-5 record vs. New York, the first time since 1997 that Baltimore has claimed bragging rights in the rivalry for a season.  Baltimore now stands 4-3 in the contests played at Yankee Stadium, the totals sitting 3-4 O/U in those matchups.

New York now turns to Brandon McCarthy to keep things going in Game 2, ESPN beginning its coverage at 7 PM (ET).  The MLB odds began with New York in the -145 to -150 range, but the moneyline was been bet down slightly overnight.  Ubaldo Jimenez gets the start for Baltimore, and MLB odds are seeing a lean on the 'under' with a 7.5 run total.

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Jimenez's Struggles Continue As McCarthy Closes Year Strong
Baltimore manager Buck Showalter is trying to get his rotation set up for the playoffs, and has gone to a 6-man rotation to time things out as well as give some of his top arms some extra rest.  Jimenez is iffy to make the postseason roster after a trying first season with the Orioles, the club 8-13 in his previous assignments for more than four units of red ink.

Control has been a big issue for Jimenez, and that certainly shows up in his two starts vs. the Yankees this year.  Baltimore lost both games, the righthander walking 11 and allowing five runs in the 10.1 combined innings.

McCarthy has pitched well enough to have won all three of his September outings, including seven shutout innings in a Sept. 12 start at Camden Yards only to take a no-decision in that one that was nil-nil after nine frames.  Baltimore eventually won it in 11 innings, 2-1, but McCarthy bookended that appearance with wins over the to leave him 7-4 since joining New York just before the All-Star Game.

The Cali native had beaten the Orioles in each of his previous two tries against them, both while he was part of the Oakland rotation.  McCarthy has been at his best pitching at Yankee Stadium this season, winning five of his six home starts while compiling a 1.36 ERA in nearly 40 innings.


Umpire Notes, Mother Nature & A Free Pick
D.J. Reyburn has been making friends with 'over' bettors in September, each of his four plate assignments this month going past the totals.  That leaves the youngest member of Jeff Kellogg's umpire crew 15-11-1 (O/U/P) on the year as Reyburn prepares for his first game under the mask at Yankee Stadium in more than four years.

The weatherman is calling for a nice evening in the Bronx, the thermometer in the mid-60s for the start of the game and dropping a few degrees from there under clear skies.  A very light SW breeze (out to left) completes the forecast.

McCarthy has been pitching well, and both teams have been trending to the low side of totals recently, but I'm going to play contrarian by backing the 'over' with my MLB picks for Game 2 of this series.

My pick: Orioles-Yankees Over 7.5 (+100)

Season: 121-118 (+1.90)

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