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Orioles vs. Yankees Prediction & Odds Today: Will Soto Power Yankees Past Orioles to Clinch AL East?

Sean Tomlinson

Last Updated: September 24, 2024 2:09 PM EDT • 3 min 17 sec read.

New York Yankees right fielder Juan Soto reacts after his two-run home run during the sixth inning against the Kansas City Royals as we look at our Orioles vs. Yankees prediction.
New York Yankees right fielder Juan Soto reacts after his two-run home run during the sixth inning against the Kansas City Royals. Photo by Vincent Carchietta/Imagn Images.

There was a time not too long ago when the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees were trading blows atop the division standings, with little separating them in the AL East.

Both powerhouse clubs remain leading contenders in the World Series odds, but the Yankees have caught fire lately while the Orioles spiral.

New York has opened up a six-game division lead as a result, and we expect the Yanks to clinch the AL East with a victory on Tuesday in our Orioles vs. Yankees predictions.

Baltimore is 8-11 in September, which includes losing 10 of its last 15 games. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge, the MLB MVP odds leader in the AL, has been powering the Yankees to wins during eight of their last 10 contests.

Can New York finish the job tonight?

Orioles vs. Yankees predictions

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Who will win Orioles vs. Yankees?

First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET, Yankee Stadium

Yankees -1.5 (+115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +115 via Betway | Implied probability: 46.51%

It seems any pitching-limit leash is fully off Clarke Schmidt after he missed over three months due to a strained right lat muscle. He threw 86 pitches in just his second start back, then cranked up to 99 his last time out against the Seattle Mariners.

In fact, the Yankees will likely be wanting to make sure he can keep handling a full workload entering the playoffs. If we assume that's the case, then Baltimore Orioles hitters could be in for an evening of flailing.

Schmidt endured a rocky few starts to begin his season, but he rebounded swiftly. He allowed one earned run or fewer in six of his last nine starts before suffering the injury in late May. His opponent's batting average over five starts in May was even down to .181.

And now, since returning, the righty has given up only three runs across 15 1/3 innings (1.75 ERA). Schmidt also held the Orioles to one run over 5 2/3 innings with five punchouts earlier this season.

Combine that with the highly hittable Dean Kremer taking to the mound for Baltimore, and there's a whole lot to like for the Yankees as they look to seal their division crown.

Kremer sports a 4.19 ERA. That's come down a little recently, but it's still mediocre, largely because he's surrendered four-plus earned runs in four outings since the beginning of August. He relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, which opposing batters are punishing to the tune of a .552 expected slugging, according to Baseball Savant.

Expect more of the same Tuesday from a highly motivated Yankees lineup.

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Orioles vs. Yankees prop bet

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Prediction: Juan Soto Over 1.5 total hits + runs + RBIs ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Juan Soto could clear this number on hits alone against the right-handed Kremer. He's batting .291 against righties while slugging .580, compared to .277 and .554 when facing a southpaw.

It's laughable to think about, but Soto has been unlucky to some degree, with his overall expected batting average this season of .319 notably higher than the slugger's actual average of .287. Similarly, his expected slugging is at .660, while the actual number is down at .572, per Baseball Savant.

His career single-season high of 40 home runs and a 56.7% hard-hit rate that ranks in the top 1% of MLB tell us he doesn't lack for power, as if any evidence was necessary. But combine that with the likelihood of even greater contact numbers and/or balls simply finding holes, and it's an even better time than usual to back Soto.

Toss in that he's one of the most disciplined hitters leaguewide with an 18.1% walk rate and hits high in a lineup with MLB's top OPS (.780), and there's even more to like about this bet.

Best odds: -111 via Betway | Implied probability: 52.61%

Orioles vs. Yankees odds & game info

  • When: Tuesday, Sept. 24
  • First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
  • Where: Yankee Stadium, NY
  • How to watch: YES, MASN, TBS
  • Favorite: Yankees (-167 via Betway)

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Written By:
Sean Tomlinson
Sean Tomlinson has been in the sports media wilderness since 2009, and he joined Sportsbook Review in 2021. His work has been referenced in The New York Times and Forbes. He's also made appearances on The Fan 590 and TSN 1050. Sean is a regular bettor who places bets daily while using a handful of books. Most frequently, he uses FanDuel and bet365 due to the quality experience on those apps. While he'll often take an analytical approach, Sean enjoys the fun, recreational side of betting too, and embraces alternative markets on events like the Westminster Dog Show or Eurovision, or the many novelty props tied annually to the Super Bowl, for example. Beyond sports, Sean is also interested in the betting markets tied to politics, and especially those connected to American elections. He sees betting as a way to explore and engage in a deeper way, and takes that same view to his work. He plays poker periodically too, and is an avid fantasy sports player. Sean also previously spent time with Bleacher Report and theScore, all after earning his media studies degree from the University of Guelph-Humber.