Orioles vs. Yankees MLB Predictions: 4-Game Series Picks

Darin Zank

Thursday, May 7, 2015 12:23 PM GMT

Baltimore got on the board in this series with a 6-2 victory Saturday afternoon. Can the O's salvage a split? Or can New York regain the upper hand?

10th MAY
Orioles vs. Yankees Game 4

By: Ron Patrick

 

 

Game 3 Recap
Baltimore hit three home runs while getting a quality start from Wei-Yin Chen on its way to a 6-2 victory Saturday afternoon. The Orioles won as +110 post-time underdogs, and the game pushed its total of eight runs.

Chen tossed seven innings, holding the Yanks to just one run and five hits, walking one while whiffing seven. He also struck out the last three batters he faced.

Yankees starter Chase Whitley gave up five runs in 5 2/3 innings, allowing all three Baltimore dingers.

New York's Alex Rodriguez sat out Saturday's game with a sore leg, and his status for today is uncertain.

 

Game 4 Betting Odds
As of early Sunday morning most of the MLB odds market was chalking New York and Michael Pineda at around -165 over Baltimore and Bud Norris, with a total of eight runs.

 

Sunday's Starters
Pineda is three-for-six on quality starts this year, and two for his last three. Last Tuesday he held Toronto scoreless through eight innings, and over his last three starts he's allowed just three runs. On the season Pineda has given up 13 runs and 41 base-runners (just three on walks) through 39 1/3 innings; New York is 5-1 in Pineda's starts, with the totals going 4-1-1.

Since the beginning of last season Pineda has started three times against Baltimore, allowing six runs and 13 base-runners through 18 2/3 innings; the Yanks went 2-1 in those games.

Norris is only one-for-five on quality starts this season, but is coming off his best outing of the year, giving up three runs in seven innings against the Mets last Tuesday. And just before that he held Boston to three runs through 6 2/3 innings. But on the season Norris has allowed 26 runs and 42 base-runners in 24 innings; Baltimore is 2-3 in Norris' starts, with the totals skewing toward the OVERS by a 4-1 margin.

Since the beginning of last season Norris has started five times against the Yankees, giving up 10 runs and 30 base-runners through 28 innings; the O's won all five of those games, with the totals going 3-2.

 

Game 4 Free Pick
These two starting pitchers have been good against today's opponents over the last season-plus, so we're thinking the value on today's betting line resides with Baltimore. Also, Norris has allowed 10 runs in his last 28 innings against New York, while Pineda has allowed six runs in his last 18 2/3 innings against Baltimore. For our MLB picks on Sunday, we like the UNDER.

Free MLB Picks: Baltimore +153 at 5Dimes and UNDER 8.5 runs (-120) at WagerWeb

 

9th MAY
Orioles vs. Yankees Game 3

By: Ron Patrick

 

 

Game 3 Betting Odds
As of early Saturday morning most books were chalking New York and Chase Whitley at around -120 on the MLB odds board over Baltimore with Wei-Yin Chen, with a total of eight runs.

 

Game 2 Recap
New York grabbed an early 5-0 lead, then hung from there for a 5-4 victory. The Yankees won as -120 post-time betting favorites, and the game played OVER its total of 8.5 runs.

Brian McCann got the Pinstripes off to a good start with a two-run homer in the bottom of the first inning. Struggling Carlos Beltran then ripped a two-run double in the third to put the Yanks up 5-0.

New York starter Adam Warren took a shutout into the fifth inning, then couldn't get three more outs to quality for the victory, walking two and allowing two base hits. He ended up getting charged with two runs and seven hits, with three walks, in 4 2/3 innings.

The Orioles scored twice again in the sixth, but the Yankees bullpen closed things out from there. Andrew Miller pitched a perfect ninth for his 13th save in 13 chances this season.

Baltimore starter Miguel Gonzalez, whom we gave the pitching edge to in handicapping Friday's game, gave up five runs in four innings.

 

Saturday's Starters
Whitley is one-for-two on quality starts this season. Last Monday he tossed seven shutout innings against Toronto, with zero walks and six strikeouts, and just before that he limited the Rays to one run through five innings. Prior to that Whitley made three starts down at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre this spring, allowing just four runs in 17 innings of work.

Whitley has started once against Baltimore in his career, last July, when he gave up three runs and five hits in less than four innings of a 3-1 Yankees loss. He also made two appearances in relief against the O's last year, giving up six runs in two innings.

Chen is three-for-five on quality starts this season, and two for his last two. Last Sunday he held Tampa to two runs through six innings, and just before that he held Boston to two runs through eight innings. On the season Chen has allowed 14 runs – nine earned – and 33 base-runners in 28 2/3 innings; Baltimore is 3-2 in Chen's starts, with the totals going 3-2.

Since the beginning of last season Chen has started three times against the Yankees (including a quality effort back on April 13), allowing eight ER and 22 base-runners through 17 innings; the O's went 1-2 in those three games, with two of those games playing OVER.

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Saturday's Batting Splits
Baltimore owns a .330 team OBP and a .442 team slugging percentage against right-handed pitching this season.

New York owns a .349 OBP and a .436 slugging percentage against lefties this season.

 

Game 3 Free Pick
The Yankees are the hot outfit at the moment, and we like going with hot teams with our MLB picks. Also, in thinking this game could easily get to 6-3, we like the OVER.

Free MLB Picks: New York -118 at Heritage and OVER eight runs (-110) at GTBets

 

8th MAY
Orioles vs. Yankees Game 2

By: Ron Patrick

 

 

O's-Yanks Game 2 Betting Odds
As of early Friday morning MLB odds were chalking New York and Adam Warren at around -120 over Baltimore and Miguel Gonzalez, with a total of 8.5 runs.

 

Game 1 Recap
New York answered Baltimore three times Thursday night on its way to a 4-3 victory. The Yanks scored twice in the bottom of the first after the Orioles had taken an early 1-0 lead, then scored once in the bottom of the third, after the O's had tied the game, and scored what turned out to be the winning run in the bottom of the fifth, after Baltimore had tied the game again.

>The Pinstripes won as -130 favorites on Thursday's MLB betting board, but to our frustration the game stayed UNDER its total of 8.5 runs, as neither team scored after the fifth inning.

>New York is now 15-5 over its last 20 games, and leads the AL East by three games.

>Yankees starter Nathan Eovaldi gave up three runs on six hits and three walks through 5 2/3 innings Thursday night, and got the W as the bullpen came up with 3 1/3 innings of hit-less ball.

>Orioles starter Chris Tillman gave up four runs on 10 hits and three walks through 5 2/3 innings. His ERA for the season now sits at 6.25.

 

Friday's Starters
Warren is 0-for-five on quality starts this year, in part because he's been on a very short leash, not yet going six innings in any outing. Last Sunday he gave up four runs in 5 2/3 innings at Boston, although just before that he held Tampa to one run through 5 2/3 innings. On the season Warren has allowed 14 earned runs and 35 base-runners through 26 1/3 innings; fortunately for him New York has come up with some good run support, and gone 4-1 in his starts, with the totals going 4-1.

>This will be Warren's first-ever start against Baltimore, but he did make six appearances in relief last year against the Orioles, and got clipped for 10 runs and 11 hits in just 4 2/3 innings.

>Gonzalez is two-for-five on quality starts this season, but coming off a very nice outing in which he tossed 7 2/3 innings of four-hit, shutout ball against Tampa, with one walk and six strikeouts. That performance was a nice rebound after allowing seven runs in 11 innings over his previous two starts, both against Boston. For the season Gonzalez has allowed nine runs and 36 base-runners through 31 1 /3 innings; the O's are 3-2 in his starts, with the totals going 2-3.

>Since the beginning of last season Gonzalez has started four times against the Yankees, including once already this season, holding them to nine runs and 25 base-runners in 27 innings; Baltimore is 3-1 in those four starts, with the totals leaning toward the UNDERS 3-1.

>What does all this mean? We give Gonzalez the advantage in the pitching match-up.

 

Friday's Batting Splits
Baltimore owns a .327 team OBP and a .447 team slugging percentage against right-handed pitching this season.

>New York owns a .307 OBP and a .406 slugging percentage against righties.

 

Game 2 Free Pick
Baltimore has lost three in a row, but to our eyes the value on tonight's betting line resides with the Orioles, thanks mainly to Gonzalez. Also, Orioles bats could use a get-well performance, after tallying just six runs over their last three games, and Warren might be just the cure. So we're also thinking OVER for tonight's MLB picks.

Free MLB Picks: Baltimore +115 at WagerWeb and OVER 8.5 runs (+111) at Pinnacle

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7th MAY
Orioles vs. Yankees Series Opener

By: Ron Patrick

 

 

O's-Yanks Game 1 Betting Odds
Most of Thursday's MLB odds opened New York and Nathan Eovaldi at around -140 over Baltimore and Chris Tillman, with a total of nine runs. In the early betting many books then dropped that price to around -130, and the total to 8.5.

 

Series Set-Up
New York just dropped two of three games at Toronto this week, losing Monday 3-1, winning Tuesday 6-3 then losing Wednesday 5-1. Just before that the Yanks had swept three games in Boston; just before that they took two of three from the Rays; just before that they took two of three from the Mets; just before that they took three of four at Detroit; and just before that they swept three games from Tampa. So New York had won five series in a row, until dropping that series to the Blue Jays.

The Yankees have also played seven UNDERS in their last nine games, mainly thanks to some good pitching on their part.

Baltimore just lost a pair of games to the Mets at Citi Field, falling 3-2 Tuesday and 5-1 Wednesday. Just before that the Orioles took two of three games from Tampa; and going back to a series with Boston last week Baltimore had won five of six games.

The Orioles have also played five UNDERS in a row, as they've scored a total of just 11 runs in that span, but allowed only 12 runs.

Big-picture, at 17-11 New York leads the AL East by two games over second-place Tampa and by 3.5 games over third-place Baltimore.

This is the second meeting between these division rivals this season; three weeks ago the Orioles took two of three games from the Yankees at Camden Yards, with two of those games playing OVER the totals.

 

Thursday's Starters
Eovaldi is two-for-five on quality starts this season. Last Saturday he limited Boston to two runs through 6 2/3 innings, although just before that the Mets got him for four runs in less than five innings. On the season Eovaldi has allowed 12 runs and 44 base-runners (hits + walks) in 28 1/3 innings; New York is 3-2 in Eovaldi's starts, with the totals going 3-2.

In his only career start against Baltimore, which came three weeks ago, Eovaldi gave up two runs and eight hits in five innings, with three walks and nine strikeouts, in a 7-5 Yankees defeat.

Tillman is also two-for-five on quality starts this season. Last Friday he held Tampa to two runs and three hits through seven innings, although just before that he got tagged for seven runs in less than five innings by Toronto. On the season Tillman has allowed 18 runs and 40 base-runners in 26 innings; Baltimore is 2-3 in Tillman's starts, with the totals going 3-2.

Last year Tillman went three-for-four on quality starts against the Yankees, holding them to six runs and 29 base-runners through 27 1/3 innings; the Orioles won three of those games.

 

Thursday's Batting Splits
Baltimore owns a .327 team OBP and a .442 team slugging percentage against right-handed pitching this season.

New York owns a .302 OBP and a .398 slugging percentage against righties.

 

Injury Update
Baltimore shortstop JJ Hardy has missed the start of this season with a sore shoulder, but he could return to the lineup for this series. Meanwhile, New York OF Brett Gardner sat out Wednesday's game with a sore neck, but also could return tonight.

 

O's-Yanks Game 1 Picks
New York recently won five series in a row, so it's been playing some good ball. We like the Yankees to take this series opener Thursday night as our MLB pick. Also, in thinking the bats might break loose a bit, we're thinking OVER.

Free MLB Picks: New York -125 at WagerWeb and OVER 8.5 runs (+110) at 5Dimes