Orioles vs. White Sox MLB Picks: Good Value and Small Pitching Disparity Suggests Backing Baltimore

Charles Stark

Friday, July 3, 2015 11:44 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 3, 2015 11:44 PM UTC

I think we have some pretty good value today on the Baltimore Orioles versus Chicago White Sox game on the small plus money line. Baltimore is the better team in pretty much every way, but the White Sox have been made the favorite, albeit a small favorite, because the pitching matchup favors them slightly. To me though it is always good value to take the better team when the pitching disparity is not a big one.

MLB Odds
MLB odds makers have come out with the White Sox as a -110 to a -115 favorite. As far as Baltimore is concerned you can get them from anywhere from a pick to a +102 underdog. That +102 can be found at Pinnacle, which right now has the best odds to back the Orioles.


Chris Tillman takes the mound for the Baltimore Orioles with a 5.67 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, these numbers are far off from his career 4.17 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. He has not faced the White Sox this season but in his last three seasons he is 2-0 against them with an ERA under 1.00. I am not a huge proponent of these type of stats although it is worth mentioning in proportion to the psychology and confidence of the pitcher. More importantly is that Tillman is coming off one of his best starts of the season allowing zero runs off of four hits in just seven innings, so there are a lot of positive signs that he will pitch well today. For the White Sox, Jeff Samardzija gets the call and comes in with a 4.56 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, like Tillman his career numbers are quite a bit better with a 3.94 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. In his last four games he has pitched somewhat better than earlier this season, but three out of those four games were against lower ranked offensive teams and not nearly as productive as the Orioles. I doubt he will shut them down, and again to me, the value sides with Baltimore.

Must Read: MLB Picks: Updated World Series Futures Odds

There is quite the gap between these two teams on the offensive end. Baltimore ranks fourth in runs scored per game, ninth in batting average, and sixth in on base plus slugging percentage. Compare that to the White Sox, who rank 27th in runs scored per game, 25th in batting average, and dead last in the major leagues in on base plus slugging percentage. The only positive of this game for the White Sox is that they are at home, oh wait a minute, actually their offensive numbers in these particular categories all drop at home much to the chagrin of the White Sox faithful.

It is not too surprising, even with the numbers disparity offensively why the White Sox are favored in this spot. Samardzija does have better numbers than Tillman and at home he has pitched better than on the road. But all things considered getting Baltimore from a pick to any small plus money is good value for me and I will back them today.

MLB Pick: Orioles +105 at The Greek

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