Orioles are the MLB Pick in Interleague Play vs. Mets

LT Profits Sports Group

Tuesday, May 5, 2015 4:13 PM UTC

Tuesday, May. 5, 2015 4:13 PM UTC

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an overlay side that has a better chance of cashing than its spread, offering long term value. Here is their Side Value Play for Tuesday.


The small underdogs may hold value in interleague play with both the starting pitchers and the two offenses beginning to show recent regression as Bud Norris and the Baltimore Orioles (12-11, 4-6 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Bartolo Colon and the New York Mets (16-10, 11-3 home) in the first game of a brief two-game series from Citi Field in Flushing, NY at 7:10 ET in a game available on SNY.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Baltimore as a modest underdog for this contest at current odds of +108.

Mets Coming Back to Earth
The Mets were great stories early in the year when they had the best record in baseball at one time at 13-3 following an 11-game winning streak including going a perfect 10-0 in their first home stand of the year, at one point building an eight-game lead over a Washington Nationals team favored to win the World Series, but they are just 3-7 since then and just lost three out of four games upon their return home vs. those Nationals this past weekend.

This season has been the polar opposite for the Orioles, who were off to a slow start at 7-10 while sitting dead last in the American League East, but who have since been the winning MLB picks in five of their last six games to climb over the .500 mark and into third place, 2½ games behind the surprising first place New York Yankees.

Colon Facing American League Team Again
The ageless Bartolo Colon is off to another fine start for the Metropolitans at 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, although that one loss came in his last start in Miami vs. the Marlins where he was touched up for four earned runs on nine hits with only two strikeouts in 6.2 innings in easily his worst outing of the young season. Granted he did not walk a batter for the fourth straight start, but the Marlins had no trouble hitting his pitches in the strike zone very hard.

Also, Colon has accumulated his good early numbers vs. some pedestrian National League offenses and he gets no such breather here vs. one of the better hitting teams in baseball. The Orioles’ recent hot streak has coincided with them getting hot at the plate as they have scored 39 runs during the 5-1 run for an average of 6.50 runs per game while batting .297 as a team during this span!

And Colon did not fare well vs. American League opponents last season despite a 3-2 record, as he had a bloated 6.00 ERA vs. AL teams.

Norris Back in Track?
Conversely, Norris has some ugly early season numbers at 1-2 with an atrocious 12.18 ERA and 2.00 WHIP, but those numbers too are rather deceiving. You see, Norris has faced some tough lineups in the Blue Jays twice, the Yankees and the Red Sox and he comes off of his best start of the year vs. Boston as he allowed just three runs in 6.2 innings while earning his first win last time out.

Norris has always been a serviceable Major League pitcher and he won 15 games last season, and some of the reasons for his rough start have been beyond his control such as his unlucky .355 BABIP allowed and abnormally low 39.0 percent strand rate. We should once again see the vintage Norris once those two things stabilize and it certainly helps that he is facing a struggling offense here.

Since their unrealistically hot start, the Mets have averaged a mere 2.80 runs per game with a team batting average of a scant .216 over the last 10 games, including batting .205 and averaging 2.50 runs vs. right-handed pitchers during this span.

Dismal Mets vs. Winning Teams
Finally, another reason for the Mets’ hot start this season may have been having the good fortune to face some of the worst teams in the league. However, the Mets have continuously floundered vs. the better teams here at home going 32-65 in their last 97 home games vs. teams with winning records, and that also extends to Colon as they are 1-4 in his last five home starts vs. teams with winning records.

Given the direction these teams have been heading in lately, look for those trends to continue with Baltimore presenting nice value as a small underdog while visiting the New York Mets in Flushing on Tuesday.

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MLB Pick: Orioles +108

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