Orioles & Royals Going 'Under' Run Total for Cueto's First Start vs. Baltimore

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, August 26, 2015 3:22 PM UTC

Wednesday, Aug. 26, 2015 3:22 PM UTC

Our MLB handicapping professional breaks down Wednesday’s game between Baltimore and Kansas City. Join us in reading this insightful betting preview article which concludes with a pick on the total.

Royals Have Orioles Number
The Orioles and Royals will square off on Wednesday. The opening pitch at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City is slated for 8:05 PM ET. Today will be the third of a four game series between these clubs. Kansas City won each of the first two by scores of 8-3 on Monday and 3-2 last night. Dating back to last year, Kansas City has won eight straight over Baltimore, and that includes a four game sweep in the 2014 ALCS.


Starting Pitchers
Southpaw Wei-Yen Chen will make the start for Baltimore today. Chen has displayed very good form over his previous three starts, compiling a stellar 1.86 ERA and 1.14 WHIP during those outings. He’s allowed 2 earned runs or less in each of his last two starts, and is 10-1 under the total this season in his following outing in this exact role. Chen made three starts versus Kansas City last season, posting a very good 2.55 ERA, and all three games stayed under the total.

If early results are any indication, Johnny Cueto has taken very nicely to his new home ball park. The right-handed hurler is 2-0 at Kauffman Stadium with an excellent 0.53 ERA since coming over in a trade from Cincinnati. As a matter of fact, Cueto is 8-2 in his home team starts this season with the Royals and Reds, and has an outstanding 1.54 ERA during those outings. Wednesday will be his first career start against Baltimore.


Orioles in a Funk
Baltimore heads into today having lost their last six in a row. During that futile stretch, the Orioles have scored 3 runs or less in each of those games. Baltimore has a more than respectable 39-26 home record in 2015, and a dismal 23-37 road mark. Baltimore will be facing an opposing pitcher (Cueto) on Wednesday that averages exactly 6 strikeouts per start. The Orioles are 22-8 under the total this season versus a pitcher averaging 5.5 or more strikeouts per start.


Royals Continue to Roll
Kansas City has won four in a row and is 9-2 in their previous eleven games. They’ve also gone a terrific 44-20 (.688) at Kauffman Stadium this season. If there’s any slight flaw on their resume this year, it’s when facing southpaw starting pitchers. The Royals are a sparkling 53-27 versus right-handed starters, but just a slightly better than average 24-21 when facing southpaws. They’ve also gone 25-16-3 under the total in 2015 when facing a left-handed starting pitcher.


Final Take
I’m going to fade the vast majority of early bettors who’ve wagered on this game to go over the total. TheGreek.com allows us to lay minimal juice for this specific MLB pick.

MLB Pick: Play on the Orioles & Royals Under 7.0 (-105).

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