Orioles RL Worth Backing When Interleague Series Opens Against Nationals

Baltimore Orioles

Mark Lathrop

Monday, August 22, 2016 1:45 PM GMT

Monday, Aug. 22, 2016 1:45 PM GMT

Our MLB handicapper likes the home dog as this interleague series opens up with the Nationals traveling to Camden Yards to take on the Orioles. Read on as he breaks down the pitching matchup for MLB picks. 

 

Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles
With firm control over the NL East, the Washington Nationals (73-50) take on the road and get the designated hitter advantage as they visit the stumbling Baltimore Orioles (67-55) who sit just 2 games back of Toronto in the AL East. Luckily this game is at home for the Orioles, as they have compiled a 40-21 SU record at Camden Yards compared to a 27-34 SU record on the road. The Nationals, on the other hand, have been good both at home and on the road, and are 37-27 SU in this situation.

The Nationals opened up as just -117 favorites in this game, but the public has run that number up very quickly and now they can be found as -126 favorites at Pinnacle on the money line. The O/U opened up at 9 runs and hasn’t had any line movement to date, and can be found at a reasonable -105 on either side of the wager right now at both Pinnacle and 5Dimes.

Starting for the Baltimore Orioles is former first-round pick, Dylan Bundy, who has been in Baltimore’s starting rotation since mid-July. A victim of injuries early in his career, Bundy has miraculously returned to form after both Tommy John surgery and being shut down due to a shoulder injury in 2015. Bundy has ace level stuff when healthy, so this is a great development for the Orioles going forward. He’ll likely be on an innings limit, which could keep him out of action should the Orioles snag a playoff spot, but that isn’t the case here.

Over 75 innings pitched this season, Bundy has put up pretty fine numbers and a 3.36 ERA, 70/22 K/BB rate, 1.29 WHIP, and .259 batting average allowed. His strikeouts have been a nice boon, with his 8.40 K/9 rate looking to be sustainable with a number of swinging strikes he has induced with his changeup. Bundy is tougher on lefties than righties so far this season, with a .273 batting average allowed versus right-handers and a .247 batting average allowed against lefties.

Stephen Strasburg takes the mound for the Nationals on Monday night, coming after a string of terrible outings. Strasburg has lost three decisions in a row, bringing his season W-L record to ‘just’ 15-4. But still, this is an uncharacteristic stretch of bad pitching for the former overall number 1 pick. In his last outing, Strasburg only lasted 1.2 innings and gave up nine runs in the process in Colorado.

On the season, Strasburg has posted a 3.59 ERA, 179/44 K/BB rate, 1.11 WHIP, and .215 batting average allowed. This is after he compiled a 10.19 ERA in August over 17.2 innings and a 2.08 ERA in July. The peripheral stats look fine for Strasburg, so there is a chance that he may be running into some fatigue at this point in the season. After all, his 145.1 innings pitched in 2016 is already more than his 127.1 innings that he lasted 2015.

With Bundy looking like he is able to hold his own against Strasburg at this point, I’m looking to the run line for value with the home underdog. Shopping around MLB odds, I’m finding that the best line to take advantage of in this situation is at just -138 to get 1.5 runs for the home team Orioles. That’s the line I’m taking – Baltimore +1.5 runs at -138 at Pinnacle form my Monday night MLB Pick.

 

Free MLB Pick: Baltimore +1.5 -138
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle
2016 YTD MLB: 50-33-4, +15.28 Units

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