Two of the traditionally better hitting teams in the league square off when the Baltimore Orioles visit the Boston Red Sox. I look for both of these teams to light up the scoreboard today so I will be backing over the total in this spot.
Major League Odds
With two pitchers on the mound with ERA's just above three it is kind of surprising to see MLB odds makers set this game at 8.5 for the total. At most sportsbooks this is the total at regular -110 juice, but at Pinnacle you can get this game at that total at -105.
Miguel Gonzalez is just coming back from injury and takes the mound with a 3.33 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He has five wins and four losses on the season and he pitched very well prior to his injury. On the road though this year his ERA jumps to 4.64 with a WHIP of 1.39. Also, the Red Sox are very familiar with Gonzalez as this will be the fourth time they will face him this season. Gonzalez did pitch well against them in his last appearance on June 9th but overall he has a 4.11 ERA and 1.57 WHIP against the Red Sox this season. For the Red Sox Eduardo Rodriguez gets the start and comes in with a 3.13 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, really solid numbers but he has had only five career starts. He is a really young pitcher at only 22 years old and at home so far this season he has not been sharp with a 7.71 ERA and two starts.
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At the Plate
Both the Red Sox and the Orioles have been decent to good this year at the plate. The Orioles rank third in the league in runs per game and are in the top 10 in most major offensive categories. The Red Sox ranked 18th in the league in runs scored per game, but their other offensive stats are pretty solid. Despite the run disparity the Red Sox actually rank higher than the Orioles in hits per game, ranked 11th and 14th respectively. Both these teams have enough firepower to get well over this number; the Orioles rank sixth in the league in on base plus slugging percentage, and the Red Sox rank sixth in this category at home.
Both these teams have enough on the offensive side to put up a lot of numbers in a hurry. With Gonzalez just coming back from injury and Rodriguez just a rookie I look for both these teams to have some quality at-bats at the plate today. Look for a final score of around 9-5 and for them to go well above the number of 8.5. Back the Over with confidence.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 at 5Dimes