Im psyched to bet under the run total for Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets as it's a perfect example of a OPOD play, that is, an opposite play of the day when a line simply does not make sense.
Sunday's MLB Odds: Diamondback vs. Mets
MLB odds makers have come out with this game for a total of 7 on the over under line. This seems really low to me when we look at the numbers of these pitchers and the offense of Arizona, along with offense of the New York Mets at home. I had over the total two days ago in the same matchup and kind of got snake bit when they scored five runs in the first inning and basically nothing after that. The best odds I have seen for under the total on this game is at Heritage sports book at +105 and Pinnacle sports book at +104. Any kind of plus money to a pick is good enough for me to go ahead and back under the total in this matchup.
Sunday's Starting Pitchers
Rubby De La Rosa takes the mound for Arizona with a 4.89 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. His numbers alone give me pause as to why the total of this game is so low. This Diamondback starter has not been very sharp allowing nine runs in his last 17 innings, with a horrible outing his last appearance against the Rockies. He can be decent at times like in his previous appearance against the Rockies two weeks ago in Colorado when he only allowed one earned run in seven innings. But with a career ERA of 4.55 and batters hitting over .270 against him, once again to me this line does not make sense thus the OPOD.
For the Mets Jonathan Niese takes the hill with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP, not bad but not great either. He has been solid in his last three starts allowing only three runs in his last 21 innings, but his home ERA is 3.77 and batters are hitting .285 against him in New York. So as we check the numbers of these pitchers it boggles the mind to see this line come out at 7 when it probably should have come out at least 7.5 more likely 8, not to mention Niese is facing a good hitting team in Arizona and De La Rosa a good hitting home team in the New York Mets.
I covered these teams just two days ago and their stats have stayed about the same, Arizona ranks fourth in the league in runs scored per game and the Mets rank 28th. In hits per game the Mets also ranked fourth in the league but the Mets rank dead last in the major leagues. Even with the Mets having the poor offensive numbers that they have had this year they simply are a better hitting team at home and the stats back that up. Both in runs scored per game and hits their numbers go up at home, as well so does all their other major offensive categories.
This game makes no sense to me and I have no logical explanation why the total on this game is so low. Both pitchers have subpar stats and the offenses are both more than good enough to score plenty of runs in this contest. I like taking a game like this and making it my OPOD though, as I have had some success using this strategy this year. Most recently for a total on July 4th my last OPOD hit with the over between the Angels and the Rangers. Today the same principles apply except I am backing under the total on this game, sometimes when it doesn't make sense this is exactly what you should do, place your MLB pick 'under' with confidence.
MLB Run Total Picks: Under 7.5 +105 at The Greek