For today's upset special we head to Minnesota where the Minnesota Twins take on the St. Louis Cardinals. I'm backing the twins on the plus money line to win their second in a row against the Cardinals in this spot.
MLB odds makers have open this game up with the Twins is as the underdog at around +115. The best odds I have found so far are at Heritage sports book where you can get the game at +121. It makes sense that they are the underdog in this spot because the Cardinals do have the best record in the major leagues so far this year.
Jaime Garcia gets the call for the St. Louis Cardinals and comes in with a 2.06 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. He has been really solid this season but his overall numbers at home are much better than on the road. In fact, from 2012 to 2014 His Road ERA was 4.03 and batters hit .274 against him. He has only made five appearances this season thus the low ERA. For the Twins, Mike Pelfrey gets the call and he comes in with a 3.18 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He is having a great season so far and is in a really good bounce back spot. Last game he got lit up allowing eight earned runs in only three innings at Texas. But at home this year he has been lights out with a 1.48 ERA and batters only hitting .226 against him. He is a veteran pitcher and should come in really focused after that horrible outing.
Both these teams rank across the spectrum in their offensive stats. The Twins rank 16th in the league in runs per game with the Cardinals ranked 21st. Besides that stat the Cardinals rank higher than the Twins in most every offensive category, but the Twins at home is a different story. For example, in on base percentage plus slugging percentage the Cardinals ranked 13th at 0.722 in the league compared to the Twins who rank 25th at 0.680, but on the road the Cardinals only averaged 0.689 and the Twins 0.740. That is the main story of this game, the Twins improve all important offensive stats at home, simply put they are a really good home team.
I think the odds makers are on top of this game making the Twins a small underdog against a team with the best record in the major leagues. The Twins have been struggling recently but now that they are back at home they should start to put some wins together.
MLB Pick: Twins +119 at BetOnline