Odds Makers Have it Wrong! Fade the Public & Take Rangers -155 vs. Red Sox in Series Finale

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, May 21, 2015 2:04 PM GMT

Thursday, May. 21, 2015 2:04 PM GMT

Texas and Boston conclude their 3-game early week set with the Rangers winning 2-1 last night, after Boston claimed the opener (4-3). Let's find out which team will help us profit with our MLB picks.

Texas Rangers (W. Rodrigez) vs. Boston Red Sox (Buchholz) (-155) 7:10 ET
What kind of price is this on the MLB betting odds?  Clearly, it is based on public and linemaker perception only.  As a result, we are afforded a solid underdog opportunity with plenty of good reasons to make the play.  Texas and Boston conclude their 3-game early week set with the Rangers winning 2-1 last night, after Boston claimed the opener (4-3).  No reason the Rangers cannot win the series based on the numbers that I will present.

The peripatetic Red Sox are one of the toughest teams to figure.  They went from 69 wins in 2012 to 97 wins in 2013, then back to 71 wins in 2014.  With the addition of a couple of big bats to their lineup, the Red Sox were projected for a solid winning season and an AL East divisional victory.  But, with 25% of the season played, the Red Sox stand 19-21 for the year, 7-11 in the month of May and 8-10 at Fenway.  The main reason for the surprising sub.-500 record at home has been the work of tonight’s starter, Buchholz, from this mound.  Entering tonight, Buchholz is 0-5 in his last 5 starts from this mound with a 6.28 ERA.  In addition, in his last 5 starts against the Rangers, Buchholz is 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA.  He did pitch a couple of solid road outings in his last 2 starts, allowing just 4 runs in 14 1/3 IP.   But, he will have to disprove his numbers from this mound and against Texas, before he could be considered in this spot.  

Unlike Boston, the Rangers, from whom little was expected after they dropped from 91 to 67 wins the previous 2 years, have made resurgence in the month of May.  Following a 7-15 April, Texas is 10-8 in May and stands 11-10 on the road.  A reborn, Wandy Rodrigez has pitched his best away from Globe Life Park.  In his most recent 3 road starts, Rodrigez is 1-0 with a 1.42 ERA.  He will have a good chance to succeed from this mound, as the Red Sox are batting .199 against opposing lefthanders this season.  

This is clearly a perception/reality play based on the public and linemaker’s perception that Boston and Buchholz will return to their projected performances. For our MLB picks, we gladly back the reality that is a Texas Ranger team, who along with starter W. Rod, have the superior numbers.

MLB Pick: Take Texas Rangers at BetOnline

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This capper also previews the Angels vs Blue Jays matchup

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