NYM Overvalued on the Road? We Think Not! Pick Mets Over Padres Tuesday

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, June 2, 2015 12:27 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jun. 2, 2015 12:27 PM UTC

It is Game 2 of this three-game set and the MLB odds favor the New York Mets for MLB picks. The Mets are a trifle overvalued on the road, but when you read about the pitchers it makes sense.

Off last night’s win for New York, they are trying to keep the direction they are headed of being winners of five of seven and MLB baseball handicappers are closely watching both teams with how they have been performing.

Here is the news you can use for Tuesday night.


New York Pitching Failures Offsetting Hitting Gains
In the Mets previous seven games, they have scored 5.3 runs a game, which is well above their season average of 3.8. New York has not been playing well for quite awhile but has managed to hang just behind Washington for the NL East as they have finally cooled off. What has kept Terry Collins club from returning to first place is often lousy pitching. Since May 18th, if you subtract the three shutouts, New York has surrendered 6.4 RPG, which is a massive conundrum.

Obviously the shutouts have tremendous value but so does more consistent pitching and if this occurs it is a bonus for the offense which tallying runs which should help beat the MLB odds.


San Diego Way Too Inconsistent
After beginning the season averaging over five runs a game, the Padres offense jumped off the pier and fell all the way to 4.2 RPG. There were recent signs of a revival with Justin Upton and Derek Norris spearheading the attack until last night’s 7-0 shellacking. San Diego needs more out of Matt Kemp and Will Middlebrooks who have on-base percentages under .300.

Those making MLB picks with San Diego have to continue to be in shock with the Friars starting pitchers with an ERA over 4 and bullpen also over the same figure. Hard to fathom considering where they play their home games.


Pitching Matchup – Snydergaard vs. Kennedy
Noah Snydergaard (2-2, 2.55 ERA) is the latest model off the Mets assembly line of quality starters. The 6’6, 240-pound, 22 year old is one big dude and features a blazing upper 90’s fastball that has a little dance up in the strike zone. When his mechanics are fluid he can dial up the 12-to-6 curveball with superior velocity and his changeup is a work on progress. Like many young ball-chuckers, the road is harder and he’s 0-2 with a 4.77 ERA.

We can think of many reasons why certain pitchers do not like pitching in certain ballparks because of prevailing wind conditions, short power alleys and thinner air, but cannot recall any pitcher having more trouble at spacious Petco Park than Ian Kennedy (2-5, 7.15). Yes, the fences have come in from a few years ago and the Padres are 17-10 OVER at home this season but we are not talking about Wrigley Field or Great American Ballpark, with the heavy marine air, Petco is still unforgiving yet Kennedy has a head-shaking 9.70 ERA at home. Two things are his undoing; he’s walking more hitters and home and sending in too much cheese with nine of 12 homers allowed in his own park.

Must Read: Public perception creates excellent MLB betting opportunity

Odds and Outcome
At sportsbooks like Wagerweb, the Mets have been bouncing around from -111 to -115 away favorites, with the total at 6.5. We realize Snydergarrd has not been as good on the road, but he’s facing a team which has scored one or fewer runs 14 times in 53 games (nine shutouts). With the way Kennedy has struggled at home, here is what to consider. When the money line is +125 to -125 and a team like the Metropolitans have a starting a pitcher who has walked one or fewer hitters in each of his last two outings, against an opponent with a cold starting pitcher whose ERA is north of 7.00 over his last five starts, they are 44-16 since 2011.

MLB Free Pick – New York wins at BetOnline

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